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根據《華爾街日報》最新調查，經濟學者們認為，美國去年經濟狀況如倒吃甘蔗越走越穩，但反映失業率居高不下，今年成長率可能放緩(甚至二度衰退)。
Capital Economics經濟學者艾許沃(Paul Ashworth)表示：「通常衰退越嚴重，反彈力道越強；惟金融危機後的復甦不能以此類比，因為民間消費與信貸均傾向緊縮。」
多數學者預期，美國去年第4季國內生產毛額(GDP)將年增4.3%，比去年第3季年增率2.2%好很多。但2010全年預計將放緩至3%左右，甚至有16%機率會再現衰退。
去年第4季的亮麗成長，不少是由企業庫存回補所貢獻。進入2010年後，推動經濟的因素變得不明朗－－尤其美國政府與聯準會皆準備在下半年起退出刺激政策。
好消息是，即便經濟放緩，美國就業市場仍可望繼續成長。學者們預估，未來12個月，美國將增加140萬個工作機會。不過此數字無法與去年失去的800萬份工作相比，因此失業率仍將偏高。
美國就業市場的主要隱憂來自中小企業。這些小型企業沒有聯邦政府的援助，而且融資來源－地區銀行－受困於商業不動產的跌價而無力放款，這點在聯準會最新的褐皮書中也有提到。
其它的調查結果：
■根據學者的預估中值，聯準會將維持利率不變至9月份。即便開始調升，幅度也較緩和，至今年底前應不會超過1%。
■受訪的54位學者中，當中42位認為聯準會將按照計畫在3月份停止收購抵押貸款證券。多數認為，即使聯準會退場，房貸利率漲幅也不會超過0.5個百分點。
■2010全年，美國通膨率預計維持在1-2%的安全區間內，房屋價格則可望溫和成長3%。
【The Wall Street Journal】
Economists Point to Muted Growth in 2010
By PHIL IZZO
The U.S. economy likely ended 2009 with a bang, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, but their outlook for this year remains muted with the unemployment rate projected above 9% throughout 2010.
"Normally the bigger the recession, the bigger the recovery," said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. "But recoveries after financial crises tend to be lackluster, as people remain cautious and credit remains hard to get a hold of."
On average, the 56 surveyed economists, not all of whom answer every question, expect the government will report later this month that gross domestic product grew 4.3% in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up from the 2.2% recorded in the third quarter of 2009. GDP expansion is expected to slow to around 3% throughout this year. They put just a 16% chance that the economy will enter another recession in 2010.
A lot of the fourth-quarter gain is seen coming from companies rebuilding inventories or trimming them at a slower rate, which could contribute up to three percentage points to growth. As 2010 wears on, it remains unclear whether there is enough demand in the economy to create significant growth, especially as the impact of fiscal stimulus wanes and the Federal Reserve begins to curtail its emergency programs in the second half of the year.
"The consumer, I think, is still going to be cautious after taking a massive hit to net worth, even with the rebound in the stock market," said Michael Carey of Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank. "The negative wealth effect will play out over a year or more. Meanwhile, with unemployment so elevated, people are saving more for precautionary reason. And even if you want to spend, your access to credit is curtailed."
The good news is that even with slower growth, the economy should start adding jobs this year. On average, the economists forecast that about 1.4 million jobs will be created over the next 12 months.
Still, that is just a fraction of the estimated eight million positions cut during the recession, meaning that the unemployment rate will decline slowly.
One of the key issues holding down job growth is a growing disparity between small and large businesses. This week, the National Federation of Independent Business released a report showing another decline in small business optimism. That stands in contrast to the Business Rountable's survey of chief executives of larger companies released last month that showed a strong increase in sentiment.
Big banks and large corporations that have access to capital markets have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed's emergency programs and low rates. Small businesses, which employ nearly half of the U.S. work force, have had a harder time accessing credit. Tighter standards on home-equity loans and credit cards have hindered tiny operations. Other small businesses rely on regional banks, which have the most exposure to troubled commercial real-estate loans. The Fed's latest survey of economic conditions nationwide, the so-called beige book, highlighted the continued weakness in the sector.
Despite expected slow growth, most economists (42 of 54 who answered the question) say that there is enough government stimulus in the pipeline.
"Give it time and you're likely to see stronger growth," said James O'Sullivan of MF Global, who noted that financial markets have largely normalized and the thaw for banks should continue with a lag. "There's a tendency for the consensus [forecast for GDP growth] to be around 3%," but during an expansion, a forecast above the consensus is a better bet. "Strength leads to strength and feeds on itself."
Among other findings of the survey:
◎ On average, the economists said that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold until September and even then won't boost the key federal funds rate over 1% by the end of the year.
◎ Forty-two of 54 economists who answered the question said that the Fed will stick to its plan to stop purchasing mortgage-backed securities in March. Most of the respondents said that mortgage rates will climb by less than 0.5 percentage point when the Fed pulls out the market, just four economists see a jump of more than one percentage point.
◎ Inflation is expected to remain with the Fed's 1%-2% comfort zone throughout 2010, and housing prices are expected to post a modest 3% gain for the year.
【Charts and Full Results】
◎ See forecasts for growth, unemployment, housing and more. Plus, views on the Fed's rates, stimulus and more. Survey conducted Jan. 8-12. (Or download all data as .xls)
◎ Complete Coverage: Forecasting Survey
◎ Bernanke Challenged on Rates' Role in Bust
【About the Survey】
The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared. For prior installments of the surveys, see: WSJ.com/Economist.
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