【○隻字片羽○雪泥鴻爪○】

○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○

既然有緣到此一訪，
何妨放鬆一下妳(你)的心緒，
歇一歇妳(你)的腳步，

讓我陪妳(你)喝一杯香醇的咖啡吧！

這裡是一個完全開放的交心空間，
躺在綠意漾然的草原上，望著晴空的藍天，
白雲和微風嬉鬧著，無拘無束的赤著腳，
可以輕輕鬆鬆的道出心中情。

天馬行空的釋放著胸懷，緊緊擁抱著彼此的情緒。
共同分享著彼此悲歡離合的酸甜苦辣。
互相激勵，互相撫慰，互相提攜，
一齊向前邁進。

也因為有妳(你)的來訪，我們認識了。
請讓我能擁有機會回拜於妳(你)空間的機會。
謝謝妳(你)！

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

2016年1月25日星期一

【1/25新聞想想】蔡英文不是北京的噩夢

【1/25新聞想想】蔡英文不是北京的噩夢

華府智庫CSIS專家Joseph A. Bosco在《外交家》撰文表示，北京心目中最可怕的噩夢在蔡英文當選之後成了，但這並不如它想像中可怕。蔡英文馬上向北京和華盛頓確認，她將會是個負責任的伙伴，如今該是中美政府回報善意的時刻。

中國可能將民進黨的勝利解釋為不可逆，而在國民黨政權剩下的四個月內對新政府施壓。北京在大選期間的言詞始終相當克制，失控的周子瑜事件成了唯一的例外。

蔡英文始終必須向三種人發出訊息──台灣選民，特別是她的支持者、華府和北京。她很有技巧的打造出了一種政治平衡，既堅守自己和民進黨的原則，又不在一中一台的語言上太刺激對方。民進黨秘書長吳釗燮在選後三天於CSIS演說時維持相同基調，強調新政府將維持兩岸現狀。

關鍵是如何定義現狀，它是靜態的還是動態的？多數台灣人都會反對中斷目前的政治和外交發展，最終他們希望正式獨立和國際承認。所以這個現狀勢必是動態的。中國也想要維持現狀，但他們想要的終局安排是統一。

真正對兩岸和平穩定以及現狀造成威脅的，是中國的反分裂法，它威脅如有必要將向台灣動武。

蔡英文已展現相當的成熟度和善意，習近平也應該以相同態度回應。如果他能廢除反分裂法，將是個很好的開始，撤除1600枚飛彈也不錯。蔡英文已經主動宣佈不會尋求正式獨立，習應該讓中國成為更具吸引力的合作伙伴，停止在國際上打壓台灣。

至於美國，它當然樂見兩岸和平。為此，它應該拋棄它對維護台灣民主承諾的模糊性，使中國鷹派人士了解威嚇台灣終將失敗，而致力於發展正面關係。華府同時應該提昇美國官員與台灣互動關係並協助台灣參與國際組織。

如果中美都能在蔡英文之後展現一定的善意，對兩岸、區域和與穩定將大有幫助。

http://thediplomat.com/…/tsai-ing-wen-hardly-beijings-wors…/

Tsai Ing-wen: Hardly Beijing’s Worst Nightmare

The president-elect has pledged “no surprises” in cross-strait relations.

By Joseph A. Bosco

January 25, 2016

24 Shares

2 Comments

Beijing’s worst nightmare has materialized – and it turns out to be not so bad after all, if China can tolerate modest success. Taiwan’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party has swept the presidency and, for the first time, the national legislature.

But Tsai Ing-wen immediately used her landslide election to assure Beijing and Washington that she would be a reliable, predictable partner in preserving cross-strait stability. Now it is time for the other governments involved, China and the United States, to reciprocate her positive message.

Throughout the campaign and since her victory, the president-elect has had to address three different audiences: Taiwan’s voters, particularly her own enthusiastic supporters; China’s ruling Communist Party; and the United States government, which was more sensitive to the views of the latter than the former.

Tsai, a sober, scholarly lawyer, skillfully negotiated a political tightrope, adhering to her principles and those of her party while avoiding inflammatory language or a defiant tone whenever she addressed the issues separating China and Taiwan. She maintained that posture after her dramatic and historic win – Taiwan’s sixth direct presidential election since the end of martial law, the third peaceful transfer of power, and the elevation of the first female leader in a Chinese-speaking society.

Joseph Wu, Secretary General of the DPP, adopted the same serious and measured tone when he addressed the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington three days after the election. Like the president-elect, Wu eschewed triumphalism and pledged the new government’s commitment to preserve cross-strait peace and stability by maintaining “the status quo.”

The operative question, however, is how to define the term, and the relationships it encompasses – is it a static status quo, meaning all political and economic arrangements remain frozen where they are now?

Most Taiwanese would object to halting their further political and diplomatic development – ultimately they want formal independence and full international recognition. That is, they want a dynamic status quo.

China wants that too, but one moving in the opposite direction, leading eventually to unification.

The real danger for cross-strait peace and stability is that hanging over the status quo, static or dynamic, is China’s Anti-Secession Law, passed when the DPP was last in power.

It threatens the use of force against Taiwan not only if it declares formal independence, but also if Beijing decides that “possibilities for a peaceful reunification [are] completely exhausted.”

With the DPP victory, China could conclude it has reached that point of no return and take steps to increase the pressure during the remaining four months of KMT rule and into the new administration. There was at least one sign that it would take that belligerent approach when it conducted live fire exercises and landing drills a few days after the election. Steve Lin, first deputy minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, said “This is very bad news.” But that depends on what China does next.

Overall, during the campaign and afterward, Beijing’s rhetoric has been relatively restrained, certainly compared to previous Taiwan elections. One serious deviation was the bullying tactics used to extract an apology from a 16-year-old pop singer for displaying the Republic of China flag in South Korea. But that only elicited outrage from the Taiwanese populace and probably helped swell the DPP landslide.

President-elect Tsai has shown maturity, moderation, and goodwill in her approach to working with Beijing on Cross-Strait issues. If Xi Jinping responds in the same spirit, peace and stability can be assured for the foreseeable future.

A good place for Xi to start would be to repeal the menacing Anti-Secession Law. Without asking for any mutual concession, Tsai has voluntarily taken a formal declaration of Taiwan independence off the table, pledging “no surprises.” As for the other part of the ASL, Taiwan’s “peacefully” accepting unification, Xi could explore ways to make China a more attractive partner by introducing some democratic reforms. Removing the 1600 ballistic missiles targeting the Taiwanese people would also engender better feelings across the Strait.

Finally, Beijing should stop trying to stifle Taiwan’s place in the international community and take pride in their compatriots’ admirable contributions to the world in so many areas.

As for the third entity in the three-party relationship, the United States, it will obviously welcome any progress the other two make in promoting Cross-Strait peace and stability. But, to enhance that prospect, it should remove any ambiguity about its commitment to Taiwan’s democratic security so hardliners in China will see the futility of threats and coercion against Taiwan and concentrate on building positive relations with the capable and optimistic new president.

Washington should also elevate its official interaction with Taiwan’s government through reciprocal high-level meetings and should help facilitate its participation in international organizations. If the other two parties can match Tsai’s reasonable and positive attitude, the election results can make a significant contribution to regional peace and stability.

Instead of a Taiwan nightmare scenario, Xi could help assure there is room alongside his China Dream for a Taiwan Dream as well.

Topics

The Debate