【1/27新聞想想】人類危險？末日之鐘指向午夜前三分鐘

【1/27新聞想想】人類危險？末日之鐘指向午夜前三分鐘

美聯社報導，「原子科學家公報」（The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists）在史丹佛大學發佈，美俄之間的緊張關係、北韓最近的核試以及全球對打擊氣候變遷缺乏行動，使「末日之鐘（Doomsday Clock）」仍停留在午夜前三分鐘，世界面臨滅絕的威脅依然險峻。

末日之鐘係由原子科學家公報於1947年設立，午夜象徵核戰爆發或人類滅絕，公報將隨世界局勢把分針撥離或撥近午夜。史上距午夜最近距離為1953年的兩分鐘，當時美俄兩國皆進行核試。

科學家表示，巴黎氣候峰會和伊朗核子協定都是好消息，但印度和巴基斯坦等擁核大國的緊張關係則很負面，巴黎峰會也不確定是否將帶來實際行動。

他們在去年將分針由距午夜五分鐘撥近為三分鐘，前一次距午夜三分鐘為1984年，當時是美俄冷戰高峰，雙方均無退讓之意。

Skeptic雜誌發行人Michael Shermer則提出質疑，他說「末日之鐘」的概念充滿悲觀和公關味道，與現實世界脫離，他指出1980年代之後全球核武即已大量削減，且歐洲自二戰之後即未曾有過大型戰爭。

http://www.msn.com/…/scientists-doomsday-clock-r…/ar-BBoIJqe

Scientists: "Doomsday Clock" reflects grave threat to world

Associated Press

SUDHIN THANAWALA5 hrs ago

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© AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File FILE- In this Jan. 22, 2015, file photo, Climate scientist Richard Somerville, member, Science and Security Board, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, right, unveils the new "Doomsday Clock," accompanied by Sivan Kartha…

STANFORD, Calif. (AP) — Rising tension between Russia and the U.S., North Korea's recent nuclear test and a lack of aggressive steps to address climate change are putting the world under grave threat, scientists behind a "Doomsday Clock" that measures the likelihood of a global cataclysm said Tuesday.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that the minute hand on the metaphorical clock remained at three minutes-to-midnight. The clock reflects how vulnerable the world is to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change and new technologies, with midnight symbolizing apocalypse.

"Unless we change the way we think, humanity remains in serious danger," said Lawrence Krauss, chair of the bulletin's Board of Sponsors.

Krauss said the Iran nuclear agreement and Paris climate accord were good news. But the good news was offset by nuclear threats, including tension between nuclear-armed states India and Pakistan, and uncertainty that the Paris accord will lead to concrete action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists behind the bulletin adjusted the clock from five minutes-to-midnight to three minutes-to-midnight last year. They cited climate change, modernization of nuclear weapons and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals as "extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity." The clock was previously at three minutes-to-midnight in 1984, when the bulletin said talks between the U.S. and Russia virtually stopped.

From a climate change perspective, if midnight on the clock represents the disappearance of humanity, three minutes-to-midnight is overly dire, said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University who is not affiliated with the bulletin.

On the other hand, Oppenheimer said if midnight means humans have emitted so much greenhouse gas that dangerous climate change is inevitable, then three minutes is a "fair analysis."

"I think the jury is out as to whether the Paris agreement will make a significant difference," he said. "The key is whether countries over the next couple of years are able to agree on some important details that were left out."

Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine examining social and scientific controversies, said in an email that the Doomsday clock is "an exercise in pessimism and PR with little connection to the reality of moral progress made in the past half century." Shermer cited reductions in the number of nuclear weapons since the 1980s and the absence of war between Europe's great powers since World War II.

California Gov. Jerry Brown joined former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry for a discussion at Stanford University after the unveiling of the clock.

Perry raised concerns about rhetoric from Russia about the use of nuclear weapons and said the threat of nuclear disaster was greater today than during the Cold War. Shultz said the U.S. needs to engage Russia and China. Brown warned about "tipping points" in the fight against climate change.

"And around a tipping point, we may not be able to come back to a stable planet or one we'll find very comfortable to live in," he said.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons. The clock was created two years later.

The decision to move or leave the clock alone is made by the bulletin's science and security board, which includes physicists and environmental scientists from around the world, in consultation with the bulletin's Board of Sponsors, which includes more than a dozen Nobel laureates.

The closest the clock has come to midnight was two minutes away in 1953, when the Soviet Union tested a hydrogen bomb that followed a U.S. hydrogen bomb test.