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熱到無法工作！ 全球高溫蒸發台幣64兆 亞洲國家最慘
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本報2016年7月21日綜合外電報導，姜唯編譯；蔡麗伶審校
熱到沒辦法工作！聯合國最新研究顯示，到了2030年，全球暖化所造成的生產力下降，將為全球經濟帶來一年1.5兆英鎊（約64兆元台幣）的損失，其中衝擊最大的有中國、印尼、馬來西亞等亞洲國家。
熱浪將衝擊全球經濟發展。圖片來源：insane_capture（CC BY-NC 2.0）。
根據英國《獨立報》報導，在印度，部分工作已經從一個人改為兩人輪值，好讓工作者在炎熱天氣下獲得適當休息。最新研究顯示，過了14年後，增加的支出將高達一年3400億英鎊。
中國處境和印度類似，其他遭受衝擊最大的國家還包括印尼（1880億英鎊）、馬來西亞（1880億英鎊）和泰國（1130億英鎊）。
這篇研究發表於聯合國大學（United Nations University）和聯合國開發計劃署（UN Development Programme）在吉隆坡舉行的極端氣候減災論壇。
其他在論壇上發表的研究指出，暴雨頻繁使昆蟲繁殖處增加、迫使齧齒類動物離開洞穴並污染淡水水源，進而提高散佈疾病的風險；火災和塵暴使空氣品質下降；水災、土石流、乾旱和強風都增加了。
紐西蘭健康與環境國際信託（Health and Environment International Trust）學者凱爾斯特隆（Kjellstrom）指出，2050年前的溫度上升趨勢已經無可避免，不過，現在開始減碳仍能改善2050年後的處境。
但凱爾斯特隆也強調，對部分國家而言，首要任務是辦法適應接下來的變化，而非預防。
去年的巴黎氣候峰會達成控制升溫1.5°C以內的協議。現在全世界升溫已經近1°C。不過根據科學家的計算，世界各國承諾的減碳行動就算全部實行，2100年仍會升溫3.1°C。
聯合國大學全球健康研究所（International Institute for Global Health）主任卡彭（Anthony Capon）表示，他希望論壇上發表的研究能幫助人們瞭解氣候變遷威脅：「接下來數十年內，人們對公共衛生和永續的重視是否會勝過經濟發展還不甚清楚，開發權利和道德考量之間的拉鋸的確是相當棘手的問題。今日所做的決定將對未來數十年的公共衛生有深遠影響。
聯合國大學教授哈辛（Jamal Hashim）和José Siri博士在《亞太公衛期刊》引言中表示：「人類文明正面臨自然劣化所帶來的公衛危機，」不過，「越來越顯而易見的是，緩減環境變遷問題能夠同時解決公共衛生問題。」
Global warming set to cost the world economy £1.5 trillion by 2030 as it becomes too hot to work
'If you are physically active in work, the hotter it is, the slower you work'
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Global warming will cost the world economy more than £1.5 trillion a year in lost productivity by 2030 as it becomes too hot to work in many jobs, according to a major new report.
In just 14 years' time in India, where some jobs are already shared by two people to allow regular breaks from the heat, the bill will be £340bn a year.
China is predicted to experience similar losses, while other countries among the worst affected include Indonesia (£188bn), Malaysia (£188bn) and Thailand (£113bn).
The figures were published in a research paper launched at a forum on how to reduce the risks of severe weather events held in Kuala Lumpur by the United Nations University and UN Development Programme.
Other papers highlighted the risk of increasingly heavy rain helping to spread diseases by expanding insect-breeding sites, driving rodents from their burrows and contaminating freshwater supplies; a decline in air quality caused by fires and dust storms; and more floods, mudslides, drought and high winds.
Dr Tord Kjellstrom, author of the paper on the effect of ‘heat stress’ on the economy, told The Independent: “The effect of heat on people’s daily lives and particular on their work has not been given enough attention.
“If you are physically active in work, the hotter it is, the slower you work. Your body adapts to the heat and in doing that it protects you from the heat.
“For individual countries, even within a short timespan, the losses due to the increasing heat can be in the many billions.”
Dr Kjellstrom, of the Health and Environment International Trust in New Zealand, said the increases in temperature until about 2050 were already inevitable.
However he said reducing emissions now could still have a significant impact after that date.
“Beyond 2050, it will make a big difference if we take action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally,” Dr Kjellstrom said.
However he said some countries appeared to be planning simply to cope with the coming changes, rather than try to prevent them.
“A lot of countries have focussed in the last few years on adaptation with the impression that we can find methods to adjust to the future changes in climate … and protect people and protect our societies,” he said.
“I think personally that the need for mitigation, which means to reduce climate change, has not been given enough focus.
“It’s quite urgent because the action needs to be taken now, not 40 years from now.”
The Paris climate summit last year was hailed as a success with countries committing to keep the amount of warming as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels as possible. The world has already seen nearly 1C of warming.
However the effect of the actions promised by individual statescould allow a rise of 3.1C by 2100.
Anthony Capon, director of the UN University’s International Institute for Global Health, said he hoped the research presented at the forum would “help improve understanding … of the threat climate change poses to hard-won advances in human health worldwide”.
"It is not clear yet whether considerations of health and sustainability will overrule the press of economic progress in coming decades, and ethical considerations surrounding the right to development are thorny indeed,” he said.
“Decisions made today will have a profound impact on health around the world for many decades to come.”
In an introduction to the papers, published in a special edition of the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, Professor Jamal Hashim and Dr José Siri, both of the UN University, wrote that humanity was facing “substantial health risks from the degradation of the natural life support systems which are critical for human survival”.
But they added: “It has become increasingly apparent that actions to mitigate environmental change have powerful co-benefits for health."
Professor Jamal said the Asia-Pacific region was already seeing more extreme weather events, as predicted by models of climate change.
“It doesn’t look like carbon emissions will reduce significantly in the near future too we may be talking about a further increase in global temperature,” he said.
“I think we will be seeing more and more of this [extreme storms]. How severe and how extreme is anybody’s guess, but we have to be prepared.”
However Professor Jamal added that there were some reasons for optimism.
“I think there’s less argument now about whether there actually is climate change,” he said.
“At last we are over the stage of quarrelling about whether there actually is climate change."
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