※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※
※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※
By Kevin Hamlin
Last Updated: October 16, 2008 22:37 EDT
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy probably expanded at the slowest pace in almost four years in the third quarter, adding pressure for interest-rate cuts and government spending to prevent a slump.
Gross domestic product grew 9.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, down from 10.1 percent in the previous three months. The data is due to be released on Oct. 20.
China has cut rates twice in the past month and eased controls on bank lending as a looming global recession threatens to slash demand for exports. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Oct. 15 that policy makers need to do more to boost domestic consumption in the world's fourth-biggest economy.
``We see the U.S. and European Union, which are China's major export markets, going into a pretty deep, synchronized recession,'' said Isaac Meng, a senior economist with BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. ``The risk of a hard landing calls for stronger monetary easing and fiscal support.''
China's cabinet, the State Council, is readying measures to stimulate the economy, Du Ying, an official with the nation's top economic planning agency said yesterday, without giving details.
Manufacturing was dealt a blow in the third quarter by falling export orders and factory shutdowns to limit pollution during the Olympic Games. Industrial production grew at the slowest pace in six years in August.
Falling Stocks
The CSI 300 Index of stocks is down 66 percent this year and weakness in the property market is also a drag on growth. The estimated third-quarter economic expansion would be the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2004.
``It's never easy saying goodbye,'' Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist with Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong, wrote in an Oct. 10 report. ``But China's double-digit GDP growth rates of the past four years are over and the economy has embarked on its first sustained slowdown in a decade.''
An export slowdown and, mainly, weaker domestic consumption will pull growth down to 8 percent next year, Simpfendorfer said. The International Monetary Fund is more optimistic, predicting a 9.3 percent expansion.
Growth is slowing across Asia, where Japan's economy shrank in the second quarter and Singapore has tumbled into a recession.
`Massive Crisis'
Capital controls, a world record $1.9 trillion of currency reserves and a fiscal surplus help to buffer China against the financial crisis. The nation's growth, the fastest of the world's 20 biggest economies, underpins demand for the exports of its Asian neighbors and commodities from iron ore to soybeans.
``If China continues to have rapid economic growth, that will hold up overall global growth so we won't have a generalized recession,'' Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York, said Oct. 15. ``If China were to tumble downwards, then we'd see a much more massive crisis.''
China's easing inflation -- down to 4.6 percent in September from 4.9 percent in August, according to the survey -- gives policy makers more room for stimulating the economy.
The central bank has stalled the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar since mid-July to protect jobs in the garment, textile, shoe and toy industries and the government has also increased some export-tax rebates.
The currency fell 0.1 percent to 6.8360 against the dollar as of 10:34 a.m. in Shanghai.
Toy Exporters
Export orders fell to the lowest since 2005 in the third quarter, according to a central bank index, and slumping retail sales in the U.S. underscore the challenge ahead. More than 3,600 Chinese toy exporters, about half of the total, closed in the first seven months of this year, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
Housing prices in Shanghai fell 19.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to real estate broker Savills Plc.
Interest-rate cuts would reduce the nation's key one-year lending and deposit rates from 6.93 percent and 3.87 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin@bloomberg.net;
※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※※
沒有留言:
張貼留言