《【妖舞魔亂】盛況不再~華爾街該何去何從？》

 

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前華爾街金融家能成為優秀的企業家嗎？

由於銀行業的一片混亂，許多華爾街金融家都將在接下來的數月內尋找一個新起點。據芝加哥職業介紹與諮詢機構 Challenger Gray & Christmas 表示，2007年金融服務業減少了130,000個工作崗位，而2008年迄今為止，已經減少了111,000個工作崗位。一些銀行家、分析師和交易商將帶著他們的資金(剩餘資金)、技能與關係開始自己創業。
他們將經歷什麼呢？
更重要的是，企業家能夠從過去勇於冒險的前華爾街金融家們身上學到什麼呢？

曼哈頓高階主管職業管理指導 Paul Bernard 表示：「毫無疑問，勇於面對風險的良好心態和專業的分析背景都將有助於『前金融家們』成為成功的企業家。」但他提醒說：『如果你還沒準備好為事業鞠躬盡瘁，或無法接受頭兩年內沒有收入，那麼創業可能不太適合你。』

跟前金融家們聊天，你會有這樣一種感覺；他們確實擁有很多優勢，原因在於諸多方面；他們能夠應付長時間的工作；願意冒險；十分熟悉會計、策略和營銷等核心業務問題；以及老生常談的必勝的決心。

Doan 獲得了羅格斯大學 (Rutgers University) 的金融學位後，就直接到華爾街工作。她在摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase) 企業銀行部任職兩年，然後又在滙豐銀行 (HSBC) 任職三年。到1999年時，她認為自己足以創建屬於自己的公司。
Doan 與業務合夥人 Deidra Viney 共拿出了100,000 美元的積蓄，又向一家銀行借了100,000美元，在新澤西州澤西市成立了獵頭特許經營企業 Express Employment Pro。此舉似乎很合理；Doan 曾在大學裏為一家臨時雇員機構工作，而且這兩人在金融服務業擁有廣泛的人力資源關係。然而，他們並沒有想當然地認為自己的公司一定能夠成功；相反，他們花了幾個月的時間來調查當地對職業介紹服務的需求——並發現周邊地區的需求很大。這兩人在半年後實現了業務收支平衡。

現年48歲的 John Childs 曾在 Dean Witter Reynolds(後來被摩根士丹利 Morgan Stanley 吞併)任投資銀行家，但在1991年經濟衰退時失業。
他回憶道：『在華爾街工作之後，我覺得自己能征服世界。』
1991年之後的六年裏，Childs 在加州 Crescent City 任註冊會計師，但是他從來沒有放棄創業的念頭。

因此，他於1998年向 Aaron 傢俱與電子租賃特許經營業務投資了250,000美元(透過95,000美元的房屋淨值貸款以及多張信用卡籌集)。而就在那時，他還有六個孩子需要供養，而且他對電子行業也毫無經驗。
他成功了！Childs 目前在波特蘭市區擁有12家 Aaron 店面。

不止這些，他還拿出100萬美元的積蓄，投入到定於下個月開業的四家 Hand & Stone 水療特許經營店。
Childs 對有抱負的企業家的忠告是：『要有只許成功，不許失敗的信念。』

當然，華爾街金融家們可以對風險採取輕蔑的態度(信貸危機的迅速蔓延)。儘管如此，不畏任何困難的堅強意志也會派得上用場，尤其是對於那些認為政府不會出面救市的人。

Josie Natori 應該會同意這種說法。
當 Natori 邁向事業高峰，成為美林證券 (Merrill Lynch) 投資銀行首位女性副總裁時，她渴望更具創造性的工作。
1977年，當她從菲律賓(她的祖國)一位朋友那裏收到一整箱的繡花上衣時，另一位紐約的朋友就建議 Natori 將這些上衣改成睡衣。儘管 Natori 對時裝或設計一無所知，但這些都無關緊要。

她仍然決定大膽嘗試。
Natori 用150,000美元的積蓄開創了新的女性內衣系列，隨後又在菲律賓開設了一家工廠來擴大生產。
如今，Natori Company 旗下擁有衣服、女性內衣和家庭用品，從48美元的一套女士內衣褲到2,700美元的絲質上衣。
她說：『並非每個人都適合創辦自己的企業，你必須能夠一天24小時承擔風險。』

此外，還要有硬技能——如按章管理——現年48歲的 Gary Colton 就很擅長這一點。Colton 曾在 Fisher Capital（私募股權龍頭 Kholberg, Kravis, Roberts 的關聯企業）擔任合夥人，其間的十年中經常往返於大西洋沿岸國家。在那之後，他放棄了高度融資業務，轉行成為中學摔跤指導，並且與他的孩子們也有了更多的相處時間。

不久後，他的祖母不慎嚴重摔傷，需要有人在家照看。
Colton 與妻子 Marla（一名註冊護士）對護理人員的服務不滿意。因此，2007年3月他們決定用100,000美元的積蓄開辦一家 ComForCare Senior Services 特許經營店。

Colton 的私募股權訓練知識給他提供了很好的幫助。
舉例來說，他認真研究了從醫院、退伍軍人協會、殯儀館以及其他客戶那裏得到的所有客戶資料，以便控制營銷成本。
他說：『效率是成功的關鍵。因此要瞭解所有投資的回報。』

對於銀行職業生涯中能夠獲得的所有重要商業培訓，你沒必要花幾年時間到華爾街瞭解 Anshuman Shu Vohra 費力摸索出的那些東西。
2004年，透過在摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase) 併購部門以及其他幾家精品投資銀行獲得多年工作經驗後，Vohra 決定成立一家優質杜松子酒公司。在辭職之前，他用了兩年時間進行策略規劃以及籌資。

儘管 Vohra 大學時期的網球隊友提供了經濟幫助，但他的許多其他朋友和一些過去的銀行同事並沒有向 Vohra 提供經濟援助，因此延誤了公司成立。
Bulldog Gin 最終於2007年初擺上了酒架，但該公司仍未實現收支平衡。

現年30歲的 Vohra 表示：『確保你與投資者的所有協議都是書面形式的。握手時每個人都是朋友，但之後事情也會變質。』

專家預測：受金融危機影響 今年華爾街失業人數恐超20萬

金融危機導致的失業遍布華爾街各個角落，從對沖 基金經理到交易所交易員。年初至今華爾街的失業人數 已經超過11萬。專家預測，今年華爾街的失業人數可能 超過20萬。

新華網報導，由於資金不足，經營環境困難，金融 公司不得不紛紛裁員，即使名氣最響的金融巨頭都未能 幸免。世界最大投行高盛集團22日制訂涉及3,00人的裁 員計劃。巴克萊銀行收購雷曼兄弟公司時裁員3,00人， 美國銀行收購美林證券導致的失業人數也在數千人之多 。

紐約圖羅學院商學院研究生部主任邁克‧威廉姆斯 博士說，人們所熟知的華爾街已經消失，資金匱乏使銀 行和投行無力維持龐大的機構運行，美國金融業即將面 臨自上世紀30年代銀行大量倒閉之後規模最大的裁員潮 。他與一些分析人士認為，到2009年第2季金融失業人 數將達到25萬甚至更多。

美國職業咨詢公司CG&C的總裁約翰‧查林傑指出， 公司將開始規劃2009年業務，由於整個行業都面臨業務 減少、收益預期下降的惡劣環境，公司勢必採取裁員措 施，接下來幾個月中失業人口將會繼續上升。

另外，盡管美國政府對金融業不斷施以援手，但仍 將有不少銀行可能因受不良次貸資產毒害而不得不破產 或被收購，從而導致該行業失業問題進一步加劇。

華爾街盛況不再 高階經理人湧入波灣淘金

雷曼兄弟熄燈，美林證券與美國國際集團相繼被美國政府收購、接手，華爾街叱吒風雲的歲月不再，不少高階經理人相繼湧入波斯灣六國尋找再展身手的契機，有人將此盛況比做十九世紀的美國淘金熱在中東重現。

美國紐約州長派特森說，雷曼兄弟一夕破產後，累計華爾街失業人數恐突破四萬大關。但海灣六國（巴林、卡達、阿曼、科威特、沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國）乘勢崛起，對這群從雲端跌落谷底的金融界高階經理人，又重燃再搏一把的旺盛企圖心。

尤其海灣六國挾著豐沛石油利潤為後盾，不惜砸鉅資挹注動輒上百億美元的開發案，像是「杜拜國際金融中心」、「卡達金融中心」、「巴林金融港」等，歐美金融霸業與中東新興市場的此消彼漲，不言自明。

環波斯灣地區的知名企業諮詢顧問公司「Grafdom」透露，近月來寄履歷註明首選為赴中東發展者即高達數百人，他們多數為被裁員者，而海灣六國各家銀行與保險公司，也需要來自雷曼兄弟、美國國際集團的高階經理專才。

據總部設在英國、專門仲介金融人才為主的「eFinanci alCareers」網站統計，過去半年原在華爾街與倫敦金融機構服務者，向中東、特別是海灣六國投石問路者，與以往相比較增加七成。

有機會可供高階經理人大顯身手固然為人才位移的關鍵，但重賞之下必有勇夫，更讓心動者趨之若鶩。中東知名徵才網站「Gulf

Talent」統計，因海灣六國需才孔急，皆不惜重金禮聘，像是在阿拉伯聯合大公國從事金融業的高階經理人，今年平均待遇調漲近一成四。

據阿拉伯聯合大公國專業財經報刊「EmiratesBusiness 247」報導，海灣六國的金融企業並不缺高階經理人，但他們的專業知識與眼界卻遠不如來自華爾街的老手，讓他們更是炙手可熱、待價而沽。

挾著掌握豐沛油源的優勢而獲利可觀，環波斯灣產油國為目前股票等流動資產，未受金融風暴重創的碩果僅存之地，包括美國、英國與法國皆有意來此分享利益大餅，再加上人才資金匯集，中東新興市場如閃耀的明日之星，躍上國際舞台。

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】亞股慘兮兮～投資人心重墜！》

 

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南韓股市三年四個月來首次跌破1,000點

南韓股市指數今天盤中跌破被視為「馬奇諾防線」的1,000點，是繼2005年6月30日跌至997.59點以來，首次盤中跌破這個關卡。

南韓「聯合新聞通訊社」指出，今天上午10時50分，南韓股市指數達到999.80點，比昨天下跌49.91點，跌幅4.75%。

南韓股市指數於1989年3月31日首次突破1,000點，去年7月25日突破2,000點，並於去年10月31日以2064.85點達到顛峰，隨後的近一年中又下跌了一千點。

五年多來第一次~日經指數跌破8,000點關卡

日本日經股價指數今天在企業獲利不佳的憂慮下，重挫將近7%。這是五年多以來，日經指數首度跌破8,000點大關。

日經指數下跌582.46(6.88%)，來到7878.52，創下2003年五月以來新低。

美元兌日圓匯率創下13年新低，一美元兌95.32日圓，加深日本出口獲利展望的憂慮。

亞股重挫 台股大跌150點 流動性風險升高

儘管美股道瓊指數反彈172.04點，漲幅達2.02%，不過，在日韓等亞股持續重挫，加上市場流動性風險疑慮升高下，台股今天跳空大跌，維持量縮格局，終場下跌150.89點，收在4579.62點，成交值新台幣為256.78億元。

台股今天開盤跳空重挫131.38點後，維持低檔狹幅震盪格局，加權指數高低點僅約20多點差距，有600多檔個股跌停。

今天包括傳產、電子及金融類股全面重挫。傳產股中，水泥、食品、塑膠、紡織、鋼鐵、營建、觀光等類股下挫逾3%。電子與金融類股跌幅也都超過3%。

國內法人表示，台股連續2週縮小跌幅至3.5%，導致市場賣壓無法有效宣洩，引發流通性風險疑慮高升，影響市場信心，是造成台股連日重挫頻破底、續創波段新低的主因。

台股跌幅限縮措施是否解除，將是影響台股下週走勢的關鍵，永豐金證券指出，若能夠恢復跌幅至7%，且國際股市能夠走穩，預期在市場賣壓有效化解後，市場信心逐步恢復後，台股反彈契機可望浮現。只是下週即將進入財報公告最後期限，投資人仍須提防財報利空，審慎因應。

台股量價俱疲 大型股跌停賣單動輒數萬張

全球股市行情疲軟，散戶、法人爭相殺低，但因台股跌幅減半，個股動輒跌停，部份個股面臨數萬張賣單高掛卻無法成交的窘境；如面板股奇美電、友達，直到收盤的跌停委賣張數均達 9萬餘張，中鋼、元大金亦逾 6萬張，似有流動性風險之虞。

券商指出，在日、韓股今早開平走低後，台股一早就有不少賣單搶在開盤前掛出，但其中斷頭賣單已不多見，多屬失望性停損及外資變現賣壓，導致一開盤就全面跳空大跌，且量能萎縮，幾乎未見承接買盤，讓台股今天再度形成市場戲稱的「開盤即收盤」窘狀。

在各族群中，面板股今天仍然持續重挫，奇美電收盤跌停委賣張數高達9.6萬張，友達也有9.3萬張，頗令市場側目；至於處於風暴中心的金融股，元大金達 6萬張，中信金亦直逼 5萬張，凱基證、寶來證逾 2萬張；傳產股中，中鋼達6.6萬張，亞泥也接近 2萬張。

券商普遍認為，5月20日以來，台股指數在今天正式腰斬過半，一路下跌4730點，市場信心全失，在斷頭賣壓消化告一段落後，一有風吹草動就急於出脫持股，加上外資變現賣壓龐大，尤以大型股為最，又因跌幅減半，個股動輒跌停，缺乏承接買盤，難以出脫，成交值陷入萎縮，似乎有流動性風險之虞。

而在大盤及個股持續創波段新低下，據券商初步估計，台股今天融資維持率約在133%至137%之譜，有下探之勢。

券商表示，台股雖創新低，但不少融資戶早已將先前面臨追繳的IC設計、營建及上櫃中小型股出脫，使維持率尚在135%上下，但手中若持有金融及面板股的融資戶，則仍有遭追繳之虞。

港股暴跌1142點 失守13000點大關

受外圍股市下跌及金融海嘯的影響，香港恆生指數今天在投資者恐慌拋售下暴跌1,142點，跌破13,000點大關，創三年新低。

雖然美國股市昨晚反彈，但港股投資氣氛低迷，恆指今早低開382點後反覆下挫，午後跌幅擴大，在銀行股全線賣壓拖累下，恆指以全天最低位的12,618.38作收，跌幅8.3%，全日成交額港幣561億元。

占港股最大比重的匯豐控股表示可以不派息，引發摩根史坦利等大行調低其評級及目標價，匯控遭到投資者拋售，拖累其他銀行股跟隨下跌。匯控單日暴跌14%，收報86.5元，占恆指跌幅的三成。

曾受財政不穩謠言影響的東亞銀行，被指已流失60億元存款，成為投資者拋售的另一重點，股價暴跌11%，收報15.92元。

此外，和記黃埔表示將於明年六月底前凍結在全球新投資項目的開支，導致股票遭到拋售，股價下跌6.6%，收報39.5元。

港股在本週內累積下跌近2,000點，跌幅13%。

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】全球股市潰敗～葛林斯潘要負責嗎？》

 

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眾院批葛老 金融海嘯禍首

美國聯準會前主席葛林斯潘週四出席國會聽證坦承，此次金融危機撼動他一生信奉的自由市場經濟哲學，他覺得震驚又難以置信；但葛老否認危機是因他而起。

擔任聯準會主席長達近十九年的葛林斯潘，帶領美國度過最長的經濟興盛期，在他任內，由於美國一片榮景，各界對葛老推崇備至。不過，這個情況已經改觀，國會質疑葛老任內犯下許多錯誤，可能是使得目前經濟疲軟惡化的原因。

葛林斯潘曾經有一整年將聯邦利率維持在1%的低檔，他如今表示，任何人都無法預測到房市會崩盤、金融市場會發生大災難。他本週四出席眾院監督委員會，在長達四小時的聽證過程中，遭到民主黨議員的猛烈抨擊，指責其反對管制的作法，就是造成七十年來最大金融危機的禍首；美國前財長John Snow及證管會主席Christopher Cox也都遭到同樣質疑。

聽證過程，國會議員質疑，為何當初有人提議，以聯準會的政策工具來打壓次級房貸、管制衍生性金融商品和信用違約交換等複雜工具，葛老為何全數拒絕。

質疑葛老拒絕控管

葛林斯潘表示，除了信用違約交換之外，大多數的衍生商品都沒有造成重大問題，次貸異常增生是因為全球經濟蓬勃帶來巨大的投資需求；最後崩盤是因為投資人未能適當評估風險，因而使得不良信用拖垮借款機構。

葛林斯潘在聽證會中也坦承，相信銀行會採取必要行動保護股東是他的錯誤，「定義全球經濟運作的模型顯然有瑕疵」。

坐視房市投機泡沫

葛老指出，他也曾經擔憂連續五年的房市榮景將演變為投機泡沫，危害經濟，但他選擇排斥這種想法，因為他認為房市是地區性市場，不太可能出現全國盡皆下跌的情況；在次貸風暴之前，歷史上的確也沒有全國房市同步滑落的前例，他說：「這次危機比我想像的還深廣。」

葛林斯潘╱經濟舵手盛名 墜海嘯浮沉

現年82歲的葛林斯潘，出生於1926六年，即大蕭條之前的紐約市猶太裔家庭，五歲時父母仳離，孩童時期跟著母親過著窮困的生活。

高中畢業後，葛林斯潘曾進入茱莉亞音樂學院研修一年，隨即輟學跟隨爵士樂團四處巡演，在樂團擔任薩克斯風手，具有職業演奏水準，結束一年多的巡演生涯後，在紐約大學取得經濟學碩士。

葛林斯潘在五○年代進入美國經濟諮詢委員會（Conference Board）工作，與鋼鐵業建立良好關係，三十歲時即成立鋼鐵業的顧問公司，成為富翁；1968年，巧遇學生時期的樂團夥伴，該夥伴時任尼克森競選幕僚，老葛因而加入了尼克森團隊，從此進入公職生涯。

葛林斯潘歷任經濟顧問委員會主席、社會福利改革委員會主席，並從1987年開始擔任聯準會主席長達將近19年；歷任雷根、老布希、柯林頓、小布希四屆總統，曾經渡過1987年的股市崩盤、1990年代儲蓄貸款危機、2000年的網路泡沫，一路走來安然化解。

老葛曾創造低通膨、高經濟成長，並帶領美國走過戰後最長的經濟擴張期，也渡過多次危機，因而備受推崇；2006年卸任聯準會主席後，一場演講的價碼曾喊到18萬美元，回憶錄版權費高達850萬美元；如今爆發大蕭條以來最嚴重的金融危機，各界矛頭紛紛指向他在任時的鬆綁管制政策，使這位昔日的美國經濟舵手，地位也大大降低。

葛林斯潘與第一任妻子離異後，長達四十年未再婚，其間不斷傳出與媒體名女人的緋聞；1997年以71歲高齡與ＮＢＣ記者Andrea Mitchell再婚。

全球市場恐慌 美股盤中震盪卻未暴跌

美股今天並沒有出現投資人憂心的「黑色星期五」慘跌。受到亞洲及歐洲股市的大幅下滑影響，美國股市的三大指數今天上午開盤即大跌，道瓊工業指數在盤中甚至曾下跌五百點，然而，下午收盤時的情況倒不如預期的惡劣。

道瓊工業指數下滑了312.30(3.59%)，收在8378.95點；標準普爾500大指數下滑了31.34(3.45%)，收在867.77點；那斯達克指數下滑51.88(3.23%)，收在1552.03點。

自從九月中旬以來，美股的走勢就像雲霄飛車，除了金融風暴的打擊，全球經濟衰退也讓股市蒙上陰霾。華爾街的市場分析師指出，股市的多變主要是因為市場上充滿不安定的因素。重要的經濟指標及企業的獲利報告固然對投資人有影響，政府的紓困方案也是市場觀望的重點。

華爾街投資銀行的破產及被併購暴露出美國金融體系嚴重的問題，而最近政府公佈的失業率上升及經濟成長走緩等信息更重創投資人的信心。道瓊工業指數在自九月中旬雷曼兄弟公司申請破產保護以來已經下跌了26%點。

葛林斯潘：信用海嘯席捲美國 但非我疏失

前美國聯邦準備理事會(FED)主席葛林斯潘今天表示，「百年一見的信用海嘯」正席捲美國，消費者支出及就業都將受到打擊。

葛林斯潘是在出席國會調查小組聽證會時，強調這次危機的廣度。這個國會小組負責檢討監管體系在這次1930零年代經濟大蕭條以來最嚴重的金融危機當中，所扮演的角色。

葛林斯潘告訴眾議院政府改革暨監督委員會：「截至目前為止的金融損害，我不知道我們如何能避免裁員及失業大幅增加。」

葛林斯潘擔任聯準會主席18年，2006年一月卸任後數月即爆發信貸危機，並在最近數月演變成全球金融危機。

批評者認為葛林斯潘將聯邦資金利率目標區間調降到極低水準，導致這次危機。然而葛林斯潘否認這是他的錯誤並表示，早在三年前就警告過信用貸款監督不足的問題。

不過葛林斯潘承認這次危機的範圍遠大於他的想像。

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】全球金融下沉，經濟沉淪》

 

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OPEC減產 國際油價仍跌逾三美元

經濟衰退的恐懼籠罩陷入恐慌的全球市場之際，雖然石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)大幅減產，國際油價今天仍然重挫，升高能源需求減少的憂慮。

紐約輕原油十二月期貨從昨天收盤價重跌3.69美元，收每桶64.15美元。
倫敦北海布倫特原油十二月期貨下跌3.42美元，收62.05美元。
紐約輕原油與北海布倫特原油期貨盤中一度分別跌至62.65與61美元，雙雙創下2007年五月以來新低。

紐約匯市—股市恐慌 利差交易潰散 日元暴升至13年新

周五全球股市再現恐慌賣壓，投資人再度蜂湧拋售 高收益資產，以贖回日元貸款，造成今日日元兌美元劇 烈升值至13年來新高。

全球經濟衰退氣氛持續惡化，明顯削弱利差交易動 力，今日日元兌歐元也應勢升值至6年新高。

英國第3季經濟緊縮，使得今日英鎊跌破1.53美元關 卡。資金自股市逃竄，也讓美元的保值吸引力提高，美 元兌歐元順勢升值至2年來新高。

紐約避險基金公司FX Concepts Inc.投資組合經理 人Scott Ainsbury分析道，現在是市場呈現儲糧準備過 冬的情況，「資金湧向保值目標，槓桿作用的利差交易 轉而冷清。投資回到美元身上。」

紐約時間週五下午4:18，日元兌美元勁揚2.8%，來 到94.62美元。盤中一度觸及90.93美元，創1995年8月來 新高。
日元兌歐元更大漲5.4%至119.09日元。盤中一度升 值至113.81日元，創2002年5月以來最高點。
美元兌歐元也上漲2.7%至1.2580美元，盤中曾升值 至1.2497美元，為2006年10月以來最高紀錄。
本周日元兌美元共升值8.6%，創1998年10月以來紀 錄。兌歐元更大幅揚升13%，創史上紀錄。
本周歐元兌美元則寫下5.1%的跌幅。

全球金融及經濟危機交相壓迫下，今日美元發揮明 顯避險作用，兌大部分交易熱絡貨幣皆大幅升值。
美元兌加元勁揚3%，至4年新高1.2842加元。兌瑞典 幣更大漲4.8%至8.03瑞典幣，創2005年12月以來最大升 幅。

在今日包括白俄羅斯、烏克蘭、匈牙利和冰島等國 加入巴基斯坦行列，希望國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)能夠提 供高達200億美元的緊急紓困貸款後，新興國家貨幣接連 下挫。巴西幣兌美元大貶5%至2.3740巴西幣，南非幣及俄羅斯盧布同聲下跌1.2%，分別來到11.1613南非幣及2 7.1806盧布。

英國國家統計局今天指出，英國第3季國內生產毛額 (GDP)較前季下滑0.5%，為1992年來首見。英鎊兌美元應聲重貶5.9%至1.5269美元，為2002年8月以來最低點。盤中一度貶值超越1992年9月的〝黑色星期三〞，當時的原因是英國被排除在歐洲匯率機制之外。今日對歐元也同步下貶至空前新低81.96便士。

投資人自利差交易贖回日元的風氣竄升，也讓今日日元兌澳元及紐元，分別暴增值10%及9%，來到58.62日元與52.70日元。澳元兌日元本周已大跌16%，本月更重貶了1/3。紐元兌日元本周跌幅也高達18%，本月跌幅則為28%。

RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc.北美國際貨幣策略部主任Alan Ruskin表示，他從未見過這般全球金融市場大屠殺：「還未退出日元利差交易市場者，將眼 睜睜看著它瓦解。」

不過，日本財務省次長杉本和行表示，日元強勁升值，將傷害國內經濟。日本政府也將密切觀察外匯波動 。

今日日經225指數重挫9.6%至7649.08點，創2003年 4月以來新低。也只離1982年來底點僅41點。全球最大數 位相機製造商Canon Inc. (7751-JP；佳能)、電子大廠 Panasonic Corp. (6752-JP)和Sharp Corp.(6753-JP； 夏普)，今日股價全部暴跌逾12%，原因是日元走強將削弱公司海外銷售額。

 

另外，Morgan Stanley(摩根士丹利)外匯分析師St ephen Jen及Spyros Andreopoulos昨日在一份報告中指 出，由於歐洲和英國銀行在新興市場的貸款曝險，尤其是在東歐地區，分別佔其GDP的21%及24%，較美國及日本高出5倍之多。因此歐元及英鎊將進一步下貶。

全球股市潰敗 道瓊工業指數下跌逾三百點

全球股市因為恐慌而下跌之際，美國股市今天在全球經濟衰退將嚴重打擊許多產業的恐懼升高下重挫。

道瓊工業指數今天上下劇烈震盪，盤中一度下跌500點，終場重跌312.30(3.59%)，收8378.95。

道瓊工業指數本周下跌超過5%，但是沒有像部分股市一樣潰散，例如東京股市今天上午一度下跌9.6%，及歐洲約5%的跌幅。

那斯達克綜合指數下跌51.88(3.23%)，至1552.03；標準普爾五百種指數下跌31.34(3.45%)，收876.77。

金融危機加油價重挫 挪威股市暴跌近11%

受全球金融危機和油價重挫雙重打擊，石油類股比重大的挪威奧斯陸股市於今天下午盤交易，暴跌將近11%。

至格林威治時間13時，主要股市指數OSEBX滑落10.52。倫敦油價今天中午重挫至每桶61美元，挪威最大石油集團「國家石油」（StatoilHydro）股價暴跌10.21%。
此外，挪威最大銀行DnB NOR的股價也暴跌13.24%。

資金避風港╱日圓對美元 13年最高價

由於市場擔心若干新興市場可能破產，加上全球股市暴跌，促使國際資金轉買相對安全的日圓，使日圓對美元升至13年來最高，對歐元等貨幣也走升。

ＨＢＯＳ貨幣策略師瓦西德和賈文發布報告表示：「資金重新回流日本，使得日圓對其他貨幣走強，美元對其他貨幣也呈現強勢，新興市場如資金持續嚴重外流，貨幣面臨沉重的壓力，未來一年可能會使經濟衰退惡化。」

以往國際間有所謂的套利交易，即借低殖利率的日圓等貨幣，購買高殖利率的資產，使得日圓飽受壓力，在全球爆發金融危機後，交易員減少套利交易下，使得日圓變得相對安全，吸引資金進駐；分析師預估，英格蘭銀行和歐洲央行將會大幅降息，縮小與日本和美國的利差，目前歐洲央行基準利率為3.75%，英格蘭銀行為4.5%，日本為0.5%，美國為1.25%。

CMC Markets首席外匯策略師賴迪表示：「美元和日圓升值，除了因為市場預期主要央行的利差縮小，全球股市大賣超也是原因之一，當全球股市大跌之際，投資人對風險的喜好就會大幅降低，美元因此得利，日圓等低殖利率貨幣也同蒙其利。」

金融危機連累各行各業 經濟衰退疑慮上升

全球金融危機使得各行各業的痛苦指數不斷升高，全球股市也紛紛重挫，國際貨幣基金（IMF）準備2000億美元援助計畫，幫助負債國家。

全球股市今天由日本日經股價指數帶頭，下跌9.6%後，一路帶衰到歐洲，英國倫敦的金融時報指數也下跌了5%。

華爾街股市也在投資人的恐慌心態下全軍皆墨，道瓊工業指數下滑312.30，以8378.95作收。道瓊本週總跌幅超過5%。

冰島政府宣稱將向IMF貸款20億美元，以資助搖搖欲墜的銀行體系。這是自1976年以來，第一個向IMF借款的西方國家。

IMF在網站上表示：「IMF還有其他2,000億美元的可借貸基金，並可透過與組織內會員國團體簽訂的兩項長期借貸協議，吸引額外資源。」

美國汽車製造業排名第三的克萊斯勒汽車公司表示，在車市前景看淡的情況下，將在年底前裁減5,000個白領階級工作機會。

全球最大鋼鐵廠亞瑟勒米塔爾的工會領袖在和資方會面後表示，米塔爾宣布暫時關掉在法國、德國和比利時的煉鋼爐。

法國和義大利政府公布新的數字顯示，兩國的工業信心指數都創下1993年以來的最低紀錄。

拉丁美洲最大經濟體巴西的聖保羅股價指數，也在今天狂跌6.9%。

過去兩年一直在警告美國會遭逢嚴重金融危機的紐約大學經濟學教授魯賓尼，今天表示，這波金融恐慌還沒有結束，「決策者可能很快就會因為恐慌性賣壓湧現，被迫關閉金融市場。」

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】馬政府有什麼Guts??》

 

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台股如何救？儲祥生：政府要謀定後動 砸錢有Guts！

台股跌幅3.5%的限制到昨(24)日暫時告一段落，台 股也以1030家上市櫃公司跌停作收，跌落4600點關卡， 面對跌跌不休的大盤，政府還能拿出什麼救市措施？
德 信投信總經理儲祥生表示，儘管他傾向回復7%跌幅限制 ，但回復後必然有大筆賣壓宣洩，現在能做的恐怕只有 「砸錢」，不過該怎麼砸，必須先想好策略，然後很有 信心的進場，「要有guts」！做出效果，讓投資人恢復 信心。

金融風暴籠罩全球，台股難以自外，儘管有3.5%的 跌幅限制，今日依然跌落4600點關卡，上市櫃共有1030 家公司跌停作收；而在第二階段的跌幅減半限制到期， 下周可能恢復跌幅7%限制，大筆賣單高掛，卻想賣賣不 掉，顯現流動性不足危機，下周台股跟著不妙。

儲祥生指出，不管跌幅是3.5%或7%，都各有優缺點 ，他則傾向於開放回復7%，不過開放後的宣洩賣壓龐大 ，若等待市場自然反應，台股必然不妙，政府勢必要有 所作為。

儲祥生認為，只要政府資金沒壓力，「就是要砸錢 」，砸錢不是賺錢，而是恢復信心，把最大風險控制住 ，這才是政府肩負的使命，其餘就讓市場系統去做。儲 祥生說，如果股票真的便宜，政府都不敢投資，一般投 資人如何有信心。

儲祥生不認為政府還有什麼方法能救市，降低融資 擔保維持率？
儲祥生認為絕對「不能用」，目前市場面 臨的就是信用問題，相對更要謹慎，若是開放，以後將 造成更大的風險。相反的，投資人自行決定追繳與否， 「沒實力就不要玩」，若是真的降低維持率，未來風險 將難以掌控。

如果對外資撤出設限，儲祥生更認為萬萬不可，因 外資也是投資人，投資人有變現需求，就讓他賣，尤其 在贖回壓力下，怎麼跪他、求他還是得賣；至於休市， 更不能輕易做。

金融海嘯衝擊 調查：6成5上班族投資失利

金融海嘯襲擊全球。據人力銀行最新調查，65.7%台灣上班族因股市或基金投資而損失，其中12%損失達數十萬、2.2%更損失上百萬。而損失資金達6位數以上者，金融投顧及保險業上班族達24.1%、電子資訊業有18.3%、建築營造不動產業則有14.9%。

而儘管媒體報導，百貨公司週年慶業績亮眼，據調查，上班族今年平均僅願意花2112元的預算採買；相較去年週年慶採買費用，46.4%受訪上班族表示額度減少、33%維持不變、20.6%表示額度高於去年。

人力銀行指出，物價上漲限縮購買慾望、大環境景氣低迷縮減不必要開銷，是上班族降低採購額度的主因。

至於仍有 20.6%上班族於百貨週年慶採購費用高於去年，原因在於上班族針對優惠折扣精打細算，「趁機下手購買以省錢」為主要原因。

上述調查係104人力銀行於9月30至10月4日間，針對上班族會員進行，計回收樣本3919份；在95%信心水準下，抽樣誤差為正負1.57%。

海外基金贖回 外幣存款暴增

央行昨天公布M2（貨幣總計數）年增率，其中M1A、M1B、M2年增率分別為負-0.59%，-4.89%與2.74%，M1A及M2均較上月為高。

至於因海外投資績效一片黑鴉鴉，民眾大舉將資金匯回台灣，根據央行公布的統計，九月活期、定期存款與外幣存款同步增加，其中活存增加798億元，定存增153億元，外幣存款更暴增989億元；央行經研處副處長葉榮造坦言，的確可能是海外基金贖回款導致。

台幣被海貶 8天跌掉3年升幅

貶值特快車「過站不停」，新台幣昨再貶1.16角，貶破33.4元，以33.412元作收，創近三年來新低價，連貶八個交易日的結果，已將過去三年升幅全吃光。匯銀人士推估，新台幣跌勢可望趨緩，而央行態度也會轉趨明朗化，下周就看33.5元守不守得住。

亞洲貨幣中，就以利差交易陸續平倉的的日圓，表現最為顯眼。日圓昨日一度最高攻抵90.9元價位，單日升值一度超過3％，累計本月以來，日圓短期內已反彈超過一成；而在韓元部分，昨日貶勢稍微停歇，單日貶值幅度為0.71％，累積本月以來共貶15.24％，在全球主要貨幣中，僅次於澳幣的兩成。

昨再貶1.16角 破33.4

美元趁勢再起，新台幣這波跌勢來得又急又快，讓不少人疑惑，央行的態度為何，究竟在哪個價位會出手「修理」投機客？匯銀主管表示，亞洲金融風暴時，新台幣頂多貶至33.8元價位，要說這波金融危機會貶破33.8元，機會不大，預料短期內的匯價滿足點，大概在33.5元會先打住。

自9月以來，韓元一路下殺，今年以來跌幅高達34％；反觀新台幣只是輕傷，全年貶值2.9％，幾乎不受影響。匯銀人士表示，外資狂撤，新台幣現今匯價只是走「補跌段」，這點央行比任何人都清楚，即便央行在此時出手，意義也不大，所以才會給人「新台幣直直落，央行怎麼都不管？」的觀感。

匯銀:貶破33.8機會不大

他認為，新台幣該跌多少，跌多少才能與主要競爭對手（主要是南韓）有拚，央行總裁彭淮南早就盤算好了，外界不用顧慮太多。就他個人觀察，33.5元這個價位，是買賣雙方的「敏感帶」，即持美元多單者，歷經「海貶八天」的行情，該賺的都已落袋，應不會妄自測試更低價位「找死」；而央行也可能伺機反攻，稍稍修正近期貶勢。

新台幣昨日以平盤32.296元開出後，毫無阻礙直接摜破33.3元關卡；開盤後不到一個半小時，連33.4元也攻陷。不過，在攻破33.4元關卡後，美元多單因擔心央行會反撲，上攻33.5元的力道小了許多，直到收盤前半小時，才進逼至33.46元價位。

美元多單疑惑 央行抬尾

匯銀人士表示，昨天匯市收盤前半小時，明顯感受到「有股力量出來了」，推估央行尾盤至少砸下1億美元，要讓跌幅減緩。在收盤前15分鐘，新台幣震盪幅度加劇，上下震幅超過0.5角，最低價一度來到33.463元，最後是以33.412元的「央行價」作收。

在海外無本金交割遠期外匯(NDF)部分，一月期報價為溢價(即看貶)2.1角。匯銀人士表示，雖然海外法人一致看衰台幣後勢，但這波貶勢應已接近尾聲，而央行的作法是以時間換取空間，減緩新台幣貶速，避免讓投機單拖垮新台幣匯價。

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】German Stocks Drop Most in 19 Years; Daimler, MAN, VW Decline》

 

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German Stocks Drop Most in 19 Years; Daimler, MAN, VW Decline

By Stefanie Haxel
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aNxQH5jryrRk&refer=germany

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- German stocks plunged the most in 19 years as investor concern deepened a global economic cooldown will weigh on corporate profits.

MAN AG, Europe's third-largest truckmaker, tumbled to the lowest in more than three years after Volvo AB cut its outlook and Scania AB reported profit figures that trailed analysts' estimates. Daimler AG fell to a 12-year low as several analysts reduced their share-price estimates for the world's largest truckmaker and Oddo & Cie downgraded the shares.

The DAX Index declined 394.77, or 8.7 percent, to 4,124.93 as of 2:36 p.m. in Frankfurt, the lowest since October 1998. DAX Index futures expiring in December lost 8.2 percent. The HDAX Index of the country's 110 biggest companies fell 8.2 percent.

``There's uncertainty about how deep the recession will become and how long it may last,'' said Philipp Musil, who helps oversee 11 billion euros ($14 billion) at Constantia Privatbank in Vienna. ``Investors are extremely unsettled and are selling blindly. There's some panic in the market.''

The DAX Index is heading for a 14 percent drop this week. The benchmark for German equities has fallen 49 percent this year on concern that bank bailouts in the U.S. and Europe won't prevent a recession. Analysts lowered profit forecasts this year as credit-related losses and writedowns topped $660 billion in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

MAN dropped 3.11 euros, or 8.8 percent, to 32.43 euros, the lowest since May 2005.

Volvo, Scania

Volvo forecast the European market for heavy trucks may be flat this year, while North America will contract by 10 percent. Previously, Volvo anticipated Europe to expand 23 percent and North America to be unchanged. Volvo, based in Gothenburg, Sweden, fell as much as 23 percent in Stockholm trading today.

Scania AB, Sweden's second-largest truckmaker, dropped as much as 14 percent, after posting third-quarter profit that trailed analyst estimates as European customers become more cautious ordering new equipment.

European sales of trucks weighing 16 metric tons or more in September fell 4.8 percent as the credit crisis and concern that a recession is coming deterred companies from expanding fleets.

Volkswagen AG plunged 25 euros, or 11 percent, to 204, the lowest in six weeks.

Europe's largest carmaker said vehicle sales rose 3.9 percent in the first nine months because of growth in emerging economies and the introduction of new models. The company said it's sticking to a goal of selling more cars this year.

Daimler Cut

Daimler declined 2.38 euros, or 10 percent, to 21.45, the lowest since November 1998. Oddo lowered its recommendation on the luxury-car and truckmaker to ``reduce'' from ``add'' after Daimler yesterday scrapped its full-year profit forecast by 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) on plunging auto sales.

Separately, analysts at Citigroup Inc., UBS AG and UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking reduced their share-price estimates on the stock.

Siemens AG dropped 4.12 euros, or 9.5 percent, to 39.40. WestLB AG downgraded Europe's largest engineering company to ``hold'' from ``add,'' saying power and industrial markets may be undergoing a rapid swing away from boom times.

The following stocks also rose or fell in German markets. Symbols are in parentheses.

Allianz SE (ALV GY) lost 6.62 euros, or 10 percent, to 59.17 euros, the lowest since May 2003. Societe Generale SA cut its recommendation for Europe's largest insurer to ``hold'' from ``buy'' and lowered its share-price estimate 46 percent to 75 euros.

BASF SE (BAS GY) fell a third day, losing 1.8 euros, or 7.6 percent, to 21.65. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its recommendation on shares of the world's largest chemical maker to ``neutral'' from ``overweight.''

Deutsche Post AG (DPW GY) slipped 54 cents, or 5.4 percent, to 9.42 euros, the lowest since April 2003. ING Groep NV cut its recommendation on shares of Europe's biggest postal service to ``sell'' from ``buy,'' citing declining airfreight growth and the possibility of a ``severe economic downturn.''

Continental AG (CON GY), Europe's second-largest car-parts maker, retreated 4.64 euros, or 12 percent, to 34.36, the lowest in more than four years. Schaeffler Group's owners may sell as much as 25 percent of the auto supplier to investors to alleviate the financial burden of its takeover of Continental amid the credit crisis, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported, citing unidentified bankers.

HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GY) slumped 3.80 euros, or 6.2 percent, to 57.68, the lowest in more than three years. The country's biggest cement maker had its long-term debt rating lowered to junk at Moody's Investors Service.

Infineon Technologies AG (IFX GY), Europe's second-largest chipmaker, tumbled 29 cents, or 11 percent, to 2.28 euros, an eight-year low. Competitor Samsung Electronics Co., Asia's largest maker of chips, flat screens and mobile phones, posted its biggest profit drop in more than three years as oversupply drove down prices of semiconductors and displays.

Norddeutsche Affinerie AG (NDA GY), Europe's largest copper refiner, dropped 4 euros, or 15 percent, to 23.08, the lowest in 10 months. Copper, used in wires and pipes, sank 22 percent this week, poised for its biggest weekly decline since the 1980s as consumer demand for cars and houses crumbles.

Nordex AG (NDX1 GY), a windmill maker, lost 1.29 euros, or 12 percent, to 9.17 euros, the lowest in more than two years.

``Market expectations are too high,'' said Patrick Hummel, an analyst at UBS AG in Frankfurt who rates the stock a ``sell.'' ``The company forecast to grow 50 percent next year, which can be ruled out given the financing problems of its customers.''

Though renewable energy stocks are more crisis-resistant due to government subsidies than others, it would be ``naïve to believe the sector would be the only one to continue to grow in a double-digit range,'' Hummel said.

Roth & Rau AG, the world's largest maker of equipment used to coat solar panels, lost 2.1 euros, or 14 percent, to 12.80. Repower Systems AG, a wind-turbine maker, lost 10.78 euros, or 11 percent, to 84.97.

Software AG (SOW GY) gained 55 cents, or 1.8 percent, to 31.55 euros. Germany's largest software maker, will cut its net debt to zero by the end of next year and the financial crisis has not affected its business so far, Chief Financial Officer Arnd Zinnhardt said.

Third-quarter net income climbed 62 percent to 31 million euros, beating a 24.7 million-euro median estimate of analysts, Software AG said earlier today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stefanie Haxel in Frankfurt at shaxel@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 24, 2008 08:56 EDT

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】OPEC Faces Worsening Oil Price Drop as Growth Slips (Update1) 》

 

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OPEC Faces Worsening Oil Price Drop as Growth Slips (Update1)

By Margot Habiby and Grant Smith
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aStfo3rJDgcQ&refer=home

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC's first production cut in almost two years may fail to stanch a collapse in oil prices as roiling stock markets signal that the financial crisis has spread to emerging markets, the center of demand growth.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will likely slice output by at least 1 million barrels tomorrow at a meeting in Vienna. It may not be enough. Morgan Stanley warned that global demand may fall this quarter, normally the peak period for oil consumption.

``The correlation between OPEC supply cuts and price increases is near zero,'' said Ben Dell, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York ``All a cut does is reaffirm we're oversupplied and demand is weakening. Developed economies are already negative and emerging markets are slowing.''

Crude oil for December delivery closed at a 16-month low of $66.75 a barrel in New York yesterday as Argentina's seizure of pension funds rattled markets around the world. It was up $1.19, or 1.8 percent, to $67.94 a barrel at 12 p.m. London time after Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said OPEC should cut production by 2 million barrels a day.

An oil price between $60 and $90 a barrel won't worsen the global economic slowdown, said OPEC President Chekib Khelil, the Algerian oil minister.

Options trading shows crude prices are likely to extend their slide and may trade below $55 in December, Merrill Lynch & Co. said this week. Oil has fallen 54 percent from a July 11 record of $147.27.

Stocks Slump

Asian stocks slumped today, driving the region's benchmark index to the lowest level in four years, as Japanese exports missed estimates, commodities prices tumbled and South Korea's worst financial crisis in a decade deepened.

Argentina's main stock index had its biggest three-day loss in 18 years yesterday, on concern the government seizure of $29 billion of private pension funds will further undermine investor confidence in South America's second-biggest economy and cause its second default in a decade.

Earlier this week, China, the world's fastest growing energy consumer, said its economy grew at 9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years. Demand from emerging markets, led by China, helped drive prices close to $150 a barrel this year. Chinese oil imports rose 11 percent last year and 13 percent in the first half of 2008, according to customs data.

Chinese Slowdown

The Centre for Global Energy Studies, founded by former Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ahmad Yamani, doubled the likelihood of a slowdown in Asian economies to 20 percent in an Oct. 20 monthly report.

``Chinese demand has been setting up for a major decline,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc.

India's central bank unexpectedly lowered its key repurchase rate on Oct. 20 for the first time since 2004 in a signal that Governor Duvvuri Subbarao sees weaker growth as a bigger threat than inflation in Asia's third-largest economy.

South Korea, Asia's fourth biggest economy, reined in crude oil imports last month, to 69 million barrels last month from 70.3 million in August.

Demand Dip

World oil demand is expected to fall to as low as 83.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2009, from 85.7 million barrels a day last quarter, a Morgan Stanley consultant said yesterday.

``We are going to see a significant dip in demand that will be most severe in the second quarter,'' Sadad Al-Husseini, a Morgan Stanley consultant and former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, said on a conference call.

The price of Saudi Arabia's Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude oils for shipment to the U.S. dropped below $60 a barrel for the first time yesterday, when priced against U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil, according to Bloomberg data. Arab Medium fell to $59.26 and Arab Heavy to $57.01.

Fuel demand in the U.S. averaged about 18.7 million barrels a day during the four weeks ended Oct. 17, down 8.5 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to the Energy Department.

Market `Flooded'

OPEC will ``most probably'' decide to cut production, Algerian Oil Minister and OPEC President Chakib Khelil said today in Vienna. Members are struggling to sell crude amid high global inventories, he said.

The oil market is ``flooded'' with crude and an output cut of 1 million barrels a day won't be sufficient, Shokri Ghanem, Libya's top oil official said yesterday.

The last time OPEC decided to slash quotas was at a December 2006 meeting in Abuja, Nigeria. The 500,000 barrel-a-day cut took effect in February 2007, expanding an earlier reduction agreed in October. The cuts were reversed later in 2007 as oil kept rallying.

``OPEC will be torn between wanting to lower output to shore up prices and, at a time when the global economy is getting into a recession, knowing that if they push up oil they will make the recession worse,'' Deutsche Bank AG's Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski said from New York. ``We predict the price could fall further, to $50 a barrel by 2010.''

Eleven years ago, OPEC members bickered about output quotas as oil slid 28 percent in 10 months amid the onset of the Asian financial crisis. At a meeting in Jakarta in November 1997, they raised quotas, ignoring the turmoil that slowed Asian economies and cut oil demand. Prices fell another 44 percent by December 1998 to below $11 a barrel. New York oil traded near $68 today.

IEA Forecast

To be sure, International Energy Agency Director Nobuo Tanaka said his organization has yet to see any decline in emerging markets oil demand and predicts 5.2 percent growth in Chinese oil demand next year.

``Our statistics clearly tell us there is not yet any indication of slowdown in China, India or the Middle East,'' Tanaka said in an interview yesterday. ``Their demand is still very robust.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Vienna at mhabiby@bloomberg.net; Grant Smith in Vienna at gsmith52@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 23, 2008 07:05 EDT

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】Global Stocks Tumble on Economic Concern; Treasuries, Yen Rally》

 

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Global Stocks Tumble on Economic Concern; Treasuries, Yen Rally

By Lynn Thomasson and Sarah Jones
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asq3E5xJKHRI&refer=home

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks tumbled around the world, sending the developed markets benchmark to the lowest level since June 2003, on concern the deepening economic slump will damage earnings. Yields on 30-year Treasuries dropped to a three-decade low, and the yen climbed to a 13-year high against the dollar.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 3 percent, a smaller decline than European and Asian equities, even after futures on the measure fell so far that trading was curbed. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index sank 6.6 percent and the pound slid the most versus the dollar since 1971 after the economy shrank for the first time since 1992. South Korea's Kospi Index fell 10 percent as the country's economy grew at the slowest pace in four years.

``There's a worldwide fear of a worldwide recession,'' said Michael Binger, Minneapolis-based fund manager at Thrivent Asset Management, which oversees about $70 billion. ``The concern has moved to being about which banks and companies will fail to which countries could fail, with Iceland and some of the smaller countries around the world being on life support.''

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets lost 4.3 percent to 871.95 at 11:22 a.m. in New York. The S&P 500's retreat gave the U.S. the fourth-best performance today. MSCI's measure of emerging markets lost 7.3 percent to 476.66 as Russia's Micex Stock Exchange stopped trading until next week after shares slumped 14 percent.

More than $10 trillion has been erased from the market value of equities so far this month, accounting for about one-third of the total value wiped off world equities this year. MSCI's index of developed and emerging stock markets plunged 48 percent in 2008 and is heading for its worst year on record as credit- related losses topped $660 billion in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

VIX Jumps

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged to 89.53, the highest in its 18-year history. The VIX measures the cost of using options as insurance against S&P 500 declines.

Since the start of October, 205 companies in the S&P 500 have reported quarterly results, posing an average profit decline of 25 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Toyota Motor Corp. tumbled 6.4 percent to 3,200 yen after Japan's biggest carmaker reported a drop in quarterly sales for the first time in seven years.

U.S. auto sales this month may fall to their lowest rate in at least 25 years as tighter credit and falling home values cripple demand, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

No Bankruptcy

General Motors Corp. slid 14 percent to $5.24. GM reiterated today that bankruptcy is ``not an option'' for the company. Speculation regarding GM's financial stability is unfounded, spokesman Tony Cervone said in an interview.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 6.2 percent as Air France-KLM Group, the region's biggest airline, said it will be ``very difficult'' to meet full-year earnings targets as the global credit crisis and slowing economic growth undermine demand for travel.

Treasuries rose, sending the yield on the 30-year bond to the lowest since regular issuance of the securities began in 1977. The yield on the 4 1/2 percent bond due in May 2038 decreased 0.10 percentage point to 3.95 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data, after dropping as low as 3.8676 percent.

``We're getting very close to the emotional blow-off where everybody says, `I don't care; I want out,''' said E. Craig Coats Jr., who co-heads fixed income at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. in New York. ``Everybody seems to be saying `I want to be in cash or Treasuries.'''

Iceland Bailout

Iceland secured an emergency bailout loan of $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund after the collapse of the island's banking system paralyzed much of its foreign exchange market, Prime Minister Geir Haarde said in Reykjavik.

U.S. stocks would stop trading for an hour should the Dow average decline 1,100 points to 7,591.25, based on ``circuit breakers'' imposed by the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow fell 368.13, or 4.2 percent, to 8,323.12. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 6.6 percent before U.S. markets officially opened, triggering a Chicago Mercantile Exchange measure meant to limit losses.

Pulte Homes Inc. gained 6.9 percent to $8.67 after home resales in the U.S. rose more than forecast in September, helping U.S. stocks recover losses. Cheaper prices on foreclosed property lifted purchases of existing homes up 5.5 percent last month to a 5.18 million annual pace, the highest level in a year, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington.

Energy stocks fell the most globally, losing 7.2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Crude oil slumped as much as 7.7 percent to $62.65, the lowest price since May 2007. Exxon Mobil Corp. retreated 4.4 percent to $67.31.

Takeunder

National City Corp. fell 19 percent to $2.22. PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Pennsylvania's largest bank, plans to buy the lender, Ohio's largest bank, for about $5.2 billion in stock with funds from the U.S. Treasury. The offer of $2.23 a share is 19 percent less than National City's closing price yesterday.

The yen climbed to a 13-year high against the dollar as stock-market losses prompted investors to dump higher-yielding assets funded by low-cost loans in Japan.

Japan's currency surged to the strongest in six years against the euro, posting its biggest gain ever, as the prospect of a deepening global recession prompted the unwinding of carry trades. The pound fell below $1.53 in its biggest drop in at least 37 years after the U.K. economy shrank more than forecast in the third quarter, bringing it to the brink of recession.

The yen touched 90.93 per dollar, the strongest level since August 1995. The yen climbed as much as 9.6 percent against the euro, the most on an intraday basis since the European currency's inception in 1999.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 24, 2008 11:24 EDT

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】Stocks head for sharp decline on recession fears》

 

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Stocks head for sharp decline on recession fears

By STEVENSON JACOBS
October 24, 2008, 8:12AM ET
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D940RP400.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

NEW YORK

Wall Street headed for another precipitous drop Friday as fears of a punishing global recession stirred panic among investors and sent world financial markets into a tailspin. The Dow Jones industrial average futures fell as much as 550 points, triggering a freeze in selling.

The massive decline was caused by increasingly grim news from overseas. In Japan, shares of Sony sank more than 14 percent after it slashed its earnings forecast for the fiscal year. In Germany, Daimler's stock dropped 11.4 percent in morning trading after it reported lower third-quarter earnings and abandoned its 2008 profit and revenue guidance.

Japan's Nikkei stock average fell a staggering 9.60 percent. In Europe, Germany's benchmark DAX index was down 10.76 percent, France's CAC40 dropped 10 percent while Britain's FTSE 100 sank 8.67 percent after the governmnet said its gross domestic product fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, putting the country on the brink of recession.

The dour outlook convinced investors that the world economy is headed for a long and severe downturn despite a raft of government rescue efforts aimed at pulling the financial system from the brink. It also indicated that the tremors caused by the global credit crisis may have only begun to be felt in their true scope and magnitude.

Fearing more carnage in world equity markets, big hedge funds and other institutional investors have been pulling out their money en masse in a bid to reduce risk and raise cash -- a process known as deleveraging that only intensifies the selling.

Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell the maximum allowed limit of 550, or 6.27 percent, to 8,224. That triggered "circuit breakers" that automatically freeze selling until the market's 9:30 a.m. EDT open. However, traders can still buy stocks and send the market higher.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index futures index was also down the maxium allowed 60 points, or 6.56, to 855.20, and the Nasdaq 100 index futures was down the maximum allowed 85.00, or 6.20 percent, to 1,175.75.

The big drop in futures trading raised the possibility that circuit breakers intended to prevent panic selling could be triggered during regular trading -- something that hasn't happened since 1997.

If the Dow Jones industrial average falls 10 percent before 2 p.m., the market will shut down for an hour. If the threshold is breached between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m., the halt will last 30 minutes. Trading would stop again if the Dow falls by 20 percent. If trading falls by 30 percent at any time, trading would be halted for the day.

Elsewhere in Asia on Friday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 8.3 percent to 12,618. Markets in India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines were also down sharply as investors bailed from emerging markets to cut their exposure to risky assets and meet redemption needs at home.

The sudden gloom over growth expectations is having the added impact of putting small economies and currencies under extreme pressure. Investors are pulling money out of countries in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia on fears vulnerable countries will not only be hit hard by the financial crisis but may also default on debt.

In Europe, for example, Hungary, Ukraine and Belarus are all, like Iceland, in talks with the IMF to discuss possible loans.

 

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. Treasurys jumped as investors sought safe places to put their money. The three-month bill, regarded as the safest assets around, yielded 0.85 percent, down from 0.94 percent late Thursday.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, plunged below 93 yen, a 13-year low, as traders reacted to dismal U.S. jobs data that spurred speculation the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. Meanwhile, gold prices plunged.

Light, sweet crude was down $4.64 to $63.20 premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The sell-off, another sign that investors fear a severe recession, came despite OPEC's announcement that it will cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day in a bid to shore up sagging prices.

------

Associated Press writers Carlos Piovano in London, Alex Kennedy in Singapore, Shino Yuasa in Tokyo and Kelly Olsen in Seoul contributed to this report.

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】ASIA MARKETS：Indexes Fall Hard On Bloody Friday》

 

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ASIA MARKETS：Indexes Fall Hard On Bloody Friday

October 24, 2008: 06:52 AM EST
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200810240652DOWJONESDJONLINE000491.htm

Asian markets were mauled Friday, with Japanese, Indian and South Korean indexes slumping more than 9.5% each to end below crucial psychological milestones as fears of a global recession swept across the region. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Australia, Singapore and Taiwan dropped to their lowest levels in at least three years.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Average sank 9.6% to end at 7,649.08, a closing level it hasn't seen since April 29, 2003. The benchmark is now valued at less than a fifth of its all-time high of 38,915.87, which it touched in December 1989.

"There is a complete loss of confidence and it was brought on by the decline in Japan," said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "We are going back to the stone ages."

India's Sensitive Index hit the day's bottom at 8,566.82, a level it hasn't seen since November 2005, before ending down 11% at 8,701.07.

South Korea's Kospi index dropped even more, plunging 10.6% to close at 938.75, registering its first fall below the 1,000-point level since June 30, 2005.

During the tumultuous week, the Nikkei lost 12% and the Sensex shed nearly 13% , while the Kospi sank more than 20%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which ended below the 14,000-point level a day earlier, fell past even the 13,000 milestone during the session for the first time since October 2004. The index ended down 8.3% at 12,618.38.

"I don't think the turmoil will be finished any time soon. I think it'll continue this quarter and the next. It's very difficult to see the bottom in the near-term," said Hirokazu Yuihama, head of regional strategy at Daiwa Institute of Research in Shanghai.

The losses in Tokyo were led by Sony Corp. (SNE), which slumped 14.1% to end at its lowest level since 1995, after the company on Thursday cut its full-year profit forecast to 150 billion yen ($1.54 billion) from 240 billion yen, citing a stronger yen, weaker sales in its electronics unit and hard times in the financial-services segment.

Other exporters were also hammered in the wake of Sony's profit-warning after the U.S. dollar fell below the 96 yen-level, as risk-averse investors unwound their carry trades.

 

Singapore, rest of region

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped as low as 3,830, the lowest it has seen since November 2004, before paring some losses to end at 3,869.40 for a loss of 2.6%.

Taiwan's Taiex ended at its lowest point of the day -- 4,579.62, a level it hasn't seen since May 2003.

Singapore's Straits Times index touched the day's bottom at 1,590.36, a level it hasn't seen since September 2003, before ending down 8.3% at 1,600.28.

China's Shanghai Composite and New Zealand's NZX 50 index were among the best performers of the day, with the Shanghai index ending down 1.9% at 1,839.62, while the NZX 50 index lost 1% to 2,778.55.

Yuihama said recession worries were in place, and that it was "almost certain" that the U.S. and Europe could go into a recession during the third and fourth quarters of 2008.

"That is very negative for Asian economies. Export-dependent economies like South Korea, Taiwan and China will be hit hard," he added.

He said Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was expected to find support near the 12, 000-point level, Singapore's Straits Times index near 1,500 and Taiwan's Taiex close to 4,300.

Analysts said fears of further earnings downgrades for regional corporations also likely contributed to the sell-offs.

Peter Hilton, head of Asian equities research at Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong, said analysts were likely to downgrade corporate earnings for 2009.

"In general, strategists and economists had held some hope that in the second half of 2009, we might be moving ahead, but now, that's being rapidly discounted and analysts are going to have to continue to discount 2009 earnings," said Hilton.

After the crisis in the financial markets and the credit markets, "the next step is for the real economy, which is slowing quickly in the third quarter," said Hilton.

Over $820 billion wealth lost in a week

The weekly losses this week across the top eight stock markets in the region - - Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Mumbai, Seoul, Singapore and Taipei -- totaled nearly $820 billion, according to FactSet Research data.

Of those losses, Tokyo, the largest stock exchange in the region by market capitalization, lost more than $190 billion, while Hong Kong lost almost another $180 billion.

Regional detail

In Tokyo, Sony's outlook also dragged down other exporters, with Canon Inc. ( CAJ) slumping 12.6% and Sharp Corp. (SHCAY) shrinking 13.7%.

In Asian currency trading, the U.S. dollar bought 95.21 yen, compared with 97.56 yen late Thursday, as investors unwound their carry trades.

In Seoul, shares of Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNLF) slipped 13.8% after the company's third-quarter net profit dropped 44% from the year-earlier period, according to reports.

In Hong Kong, shares of market heavyweight HSBC Holdings (HBC) lost 12.5%, pressuring the benchmark Hang Seng Index. Among other notable losers, diversified China Resources Enterprise lost 11.6% and bourse operator Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (0388.HK) fell 7.1%.

Shares of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China gave up 7.4% in Hong Kong and 2.6% in Shanghai before the mainland's largest lender reported a 25.5% growth in third-quarter profit.

In Mumbai, shares of Maruti Suzuki India ended 9.9% lower after it reported a 37% drop in fiscal second-quarter net income from the year-ago period due to an increase in raw material costs and higher depreciation charges.

Among other big losers of the day, shares of real estate major DLF slumped 24% , and market heavyweight Reliance Industries skidded 16.4%, although it posted a better-than-expected 7.4% growth in second-quarter net profit on Thursday.

December crude-oil futures fell $1.40 to $66.44 a barrel in electronic trading, after climbing $1.09 to $67.84 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 2% to 8,691.25 and the S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 1.3% to 908.11, while the Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) slipped 0.7% to 1,603.91.

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  10-24-08 0652ET
  Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】Global Stock Market Bloody On Friday !!》

 

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Stocks dive on belief global recession is at hand

By TIM PARADIS 10.24.08, 9:45 AM ET
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/24/ap5602060.html

NEW YORK -
Wall Street joined world stock markets in a precipitous plunge Friday, with the Dow Jones industrials dropping more than 400 points in the opening minutes of trading. The growing belief that the world will suffer a punishing economic recession has investors furiously dumping stocks.

The massive decline was caused by increasingly grim news from overseas. In Japan, shares of Sony sank more than 14 percent after it slashed its earnings forecast for the fiscal year. In Germany, Daimler's stock dropped 11.4 percent in morning trading after it reported lower third-quarter earnings and abandoned its 2008 profit and revenue guidance.

Japan's Nikkei stock average fell a staggering 9.60 percent. In Europe, Germany's benchmark DAX index was down 10.76 percent, France's CAC40 dropped 10 percent while Britain's FTSE 100 sank 8.67 percent after the government said its gross domestic product fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, putting the country on the brink of recession.

The dour outlook convinced investors that the world economy is headed for a long and severe downturn despite a raft of government rescue efforts aimed at pulling the financial system from the brink. It also indicated that the tremors caused by the global credit crisis may have only begun to be felt in their true scope and magnitude.

"There's a lot of panic out there today," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York. "People have been saying that we're in a recession. This is the realization."

Fearing more carnage in world equity markets, big hedge funds and other institutional investors have been pulling out their money en masse in a bid to reduce risk and raise cash - a process known as deleveraging that only intensifies the selling. Meanwhile, individual investors that have seen their holdings decimated in recent weeks have been yanking money out of mutual funds, adding to the downward pressure on markets.

"I think it would be natural to make an assumption that there are some funds in trouble and that we may see some funds shut down," Fullman said.

In the first minutes of trading, the Dow rose fell 417.67, or 4.81 percent, to 8,273.58.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 index fell 50.26, or 5.53 percent, to 857.85, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 86.75, or 5.41 percent, to 1,517.16.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Oil shares drop on lower crude, recession fears

Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:44am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49N4PN20081024

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of oil majors fell sharply across the globe on Friday, as crude oil prices sunk on mounting fears of a global economic recession.

The slide in crude oil prices came despite OPEC's announcement that it will cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day in a bid to stem the sharp slide in oil prices.

International benchmark U.S. crude fell 6 percent to $63.93 on Friday and is down about 60 percent from a record high of $147.27 hit in July.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Index was down 7.2 percent in early trade.

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 7 percent to $65.60, while Chevron Corp (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped 7 percent to $62.16, and ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slid 7.4 percent to $47.87, all on the New York Stock Exchange.

Shares of BP Plc (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(BP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped 9 percent on the London Stock Exchange and 11 percent on the NYSE, while Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)was off 7.4 percent.

(Reporting by Euan Rocha; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

 

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《【妖舞魔亂】馬政府救房市 業者：胡搞瞎搞！》

 

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房貸寬限延三年 銀行哎哎叫

行政院下政策指導棋，要銀行把「只還利息不還本金」的房貸寬限期放寬到三年，銀行業昨聞訊後，不論公股行庫還是民營銀行，不論本國或外商，均不表認同，台灣的銀行體質健全，房貸授信業務正常，不該有這社會議題！

房貸戶數十五萬、民營銀行第一多的中信銀董事長羅聯福昨聽到這消息後，感慨萬千，他說：「別國家是在救銀行，我們是要把銀行幹掉」，他提醒，現在應付金融風暴都忙得不可開交了，倘若資金錯置，未來會連上膛的子彈都沒有。

 

羅聯福解釋，銀行針對還款有困難的房貸戶，早就有一套特殊的機制在處理了，每一家銀行都有，「這種事情一定要視個案審酌，不能通案處理，做通案還得了。」

房貸餘額三千億元、民營銀行第一大的永豐銀個金事業群總經理賈堅一也說，如果銀行公會理監事會真通過這項決議，勢必衍生道德風險。

賈堅一解釋，明明是正常繳款、有能力繳款的房貸戶，在「政府教我可以不必還本金」之下，鼓勵房貸戶不必還錢，連動所及，銀行獲利會更難看，房貸授信風險會攀升。

中信、永豐銀等，目前房貸寬限期都不到一年，以永豐銀為例，八成以上的房貸戶沒有寬限期，外商銀行更是全部零寬限期。

以花旗銀行為例，花旗台灣區總經理管國霖昨表示，花旗從不做有寬限期的房貸，市場研判這項制度對外商銀行衝擊最大。

公股行庫方面，包括台銀、土銀、合庫等，目前房貸寬限期平均三年，這項措施對它們影響最小，因為現在就已經可以展延本金三年了；儘管如此，合庫總經理林田昨表示，相當認同羅聯福、賈堅一等人的看法。

林田說，金融風暴從美國吹到歐洲再吹到亞洲，日本、韓國受創程度都比台灣深，台灣全體銀行的逾放比僅一．五％，凸顯我銀行業體質健全、世界有目共睹。

林田說，決策當局憂國憂民值得肯定，但是，「台灣目前沒這壓力，不應反應過度，這不該成為社會議題！」

房市冷 仲介增 年底恐掀關店潮

全國建物買賣移轉件數由5月的40839降到8月26527件，大幅萎縮三成五，但全國不動產經紀業家數卻持續成長5.1%，房仲業者憂心表示，目前國內經濟景氣低迷，企業裁員、縮編、減薪時有耳聞，這波不景氣將會再持續一段時日，房地產業在粥多僧少的情況下，年底恐怕會有一波關店潮。

根據內政部資料統計，今年8月全國建物買賣移轉件數為26527件，相較於5月的40839件，明顯減少14312件，萎縮幅度高達35%。但不動產經紀業家數不但沒減少，反而持續增加，今年5月為3861家，到8月成長到4057家，成長幅度為5.1%，而且家數持續增加中，到今年10月，家數已經成長到4139家。

永慶房屋研展部協理黃增福分析，國際經濟情勢不佳，國內股市急轉直下，再加上許多金字塔頂端族群遭受國外衍生性金融商品波及，資產大幅縮水，房市成交動能急凍，因而8月單月僅成交26527件，遠低於去年及今年1至8月平均成交量水準。

另根據永慶房屋統計，就全國北中南主要縣市來觀察，今年5至10月間，台北縣及台中市不動產經紀業家數成長最多，增幅分別為10%及8.2%；但若以各主要縣市建物買賣移轉登記筆數來觀察，減少幅度最多的是高雄市、台北市、台中市，減幅分別為45.9%、42.7%及41.4%。

黃增福表示，在市場急速走下坡時，通常郊區及都市外圍區域的成交量萎縮幅度會比較明顯，市中心一般來說會最後反應，而以全台北中南主要的縣市來看，顯然台北市交易量減幅也高達42.7%，8月成交件數僅4138件，最新公布的9月成交量也僅3928件，可以想像，未來全國房市將有一段漫長的寒冬要過。

銀行的算盤 市況差 先還較划算

金管會擬提紓困措施，將房貸寬限期延長至三年，房貸族到底要不要申請？銀行業者表示，現行政府優惠房貸利率不到三％，但隨全球景氣趨緩，投資要「打平」房貸利息並不容易，建議房貸族若有錢，仍以優先還款、減輕債務負擔為佳；若將還款的錢拿去投資，萬一套牢或虧損，恐怕得不償失。

銀行主管表示，所謂的寬限期，只是先不還本金，但利息仍照常得繳。此外，若民眾申請房貸分二十年攤還，因這項政策去申請三年寬限期，等於後面的十七年，得負擔原本分二十年攤還的本金，還款壓力只是往後延，而且是有增無減。

 

以王先生向銀行申請五百萬元房貸，年息三％，分二十年攤還為例，在沒有寬限期的情況下，王先生每月要還二七七三○元；一旦申請三年寬限期，前三年每月還款金額為一二五○○元；但後面的十七年，每月還款金額提高至二九九八六元，每年將增加二七○七二元房貸支出。

他說，過去景氣佳，投資報酬率動輒十％之上，才會出現抵利型房貸，或是購屋民眾申請寬限期，將還款資金用來投資的熱潮。不過現在市況大不同，此時將還款的錢拿去投資，虧損的機會很大，若寬限期結束，原本規畫還款的錢賠掉，卻得承受更大的房貸壓力，勢必打亂生活步調。

 

全民紓困 房貸還本金 將展延3年

經濟不景氣，銀行業者應負社會責任？金管會主委陳樹昨在立院答詢時指出，已與銀行公會積極聯繫，下周四（卅日）的公會例行理監事會議。應該可以做成「房貸戶展延繳納本金三年」的決議，銀行高層昨聞訊後則直斥：「胡搞！」

據金管會最新統計，我國房貸戶將近二○二萬，總金額四兆六千多億元，為銀行各種個人放款業務中，金額最大的商品。立法院財政委員會昨審查金管會預算，陳樹首次對這議題表達支持的立場。

陳樹說，他是本周二從報上得知行政院副院長邱正雄對這議題的看法，跟副院長請示後，在第一時間要銀行局跟銀行公會聯絡。據悉，邱正雄擔任主委的消保會，也在當天同步發函銀行公會，要公會「邀請各銀行業者研議展延房貸戶本金繳納之可行性」。

據悉，房貸本金展延三年的想法，最早由立法委員林德福在本周一的立院環衛委員會提出。邱正雄身兼消保會主委，他當天在答詢台上表態同意研議此案，陳樹隔日從報上得知消息後火速響應，銀行公會理事長張秀蓮昨受訪時也說，已經和副院長談過了，會積極研議可能的作法。

銀行主管則說，銀行公會這幾天和幾家銀行聯絡，主要房貸銀行都說，房貸的違約率並沒有上升，也就是說，市場目前並未出現房貸戶還款困難的現象。

不過，消保會發給銀行公會的公文卻寫道：「由於目前已經有協助營運有困難之企業，展延融資期限之方案，為防範民眾受景氣影響繳不出房貸，以致法拍造成社會問題」，惠請銀行業積極研議展延房貸本金三年的可行性。

銀行主管大吐苦水，「竟然把搞企業紓困那套拿來搞房貸」，企業紓困還有民進黨執政時期的舊方案可以抄，台灣金融史上，除了九二一大地震等特殊例外事件，還不曾發生過主管機關統一要求展延房貸本金的事情。

同時，由於政策倉促提出，所謂的「本金展延三年」，究竟是增加為三年，還是再增加三年，金管會銀行局局長張明道表示，還要再研究。

 

儘管如此，身為政府政策指標性銀行的台銀，已率先響應。台銀人員說，該行本周一起，其知名的精英房貸Easy Go，已經把房貸期限二十年以內的房貸，從寬限期兩年延長為三年；倘若房貸期限達三十年，寬限期更是可以延長到五年。也就是說，民眾到台銀辦房貸，寬限期至少三年，台銀主管表示，寬限期授權各分行自行決定，假設房貸戶遇到失業、收入遽減等問題，可向台銀申請展延房貸本金，盼藉此發揮拋磚引玉之效。

景氣差 建商打出低自備款 低單價 高額房貸

為了刺激買氣，國內最近有建商打著「低自備款、低單價和高額房貸」的訴求，鎖定手上（自有資金）有限的首購族，展開促銷。不過，有專家提醒，由於這類產品，消費者要面對的是高額貸款，未來的房貸壓力是否會影響生活品質，消費者買屋前要仔細考量。（陳鳳如報導）

房市不景氣，有建商展開促銷，打著所謂的「兩低一高」，也就是低自備款、低單價和高額房貸，降低消費者購買的門檻。住展雜誌研發長倪子仁表示，目前在台北縣的三重、林口、淡水，以及基隆、桃園、新竹和中南部等地，因為房價水準相對較低，為了刺激買氣，甚至還有建商喊出送裝潢的優惠。不過，倪子仁說，如果消費者手上自備款只有一成，那麼面對高額的貸款，要注意自己未來是否能夠承擔。:「購屋者可能也要小心，自備款不足其實對這種產品還是要小心一點，不要因為門檻很低、跳進去，當然現在利率還是相對低檔，假如萬一一年內利率又再往上走，你的負擔就會越來越沈重，因為你貸的比一般人多，人家只貸了六成你貸了九成。」

住展雜誌調查也發現，打出兩低一高來吸引購屋者的建案，因為鎖定的族群，大部分是手上自有資金有限的首購族，因此通常以兩房或小三房為主，坪數不會太大。

學者：明年交屋潮到若仍賣不掉 建商可能面臨倒閉

國際經濟局勢不佳，國內房地產也受到影響。有學者認為，依照過去房市景氣循環的情況來看，等到明年交屋潮到了之後，如果房子還是賣不掉，建商就可能面臨倒閉的風險。不過，有房仲業者說，最近出來看屋的人已經比前幾個月多，但能否順利成交，還要再觀察一陣子。（陳鳳如報導）

國內房地產從今年五二０以來，買氣就有逐漸下滑的趨勢。有學者認為，國內房市至少還要修正兩到四年左右，因為現在交易量已經縮小，接著價格就會下降，而且依照過去房市景氣循環來看，如果建商或原本的投資客降價後，還是沒有人買，甚至還可能出現有建商倒閉的情況。政大教授張金鶚說:「因為一定有一些廠商，不只降價，降價還沒有用，或者一些投資客降價還是沒有人買，就會有斷頭、法拍屋就會出現，廠商就會有倒閉的情況，在過去，在不景氣過度投資的情況下，達到這樣一個市場循環的現象，我想是應該很可能發生的吧。」

房仲業者看這波房市景氣，悲觀的認為至少要盤整一年，樂觀的認為，至少也盤整要到年底或明年初。至於民眾何時進場才能撿到便宜，房仲業者說，現在已經進入買方市場，因此，不論是自住或換屋，都可以開始找房子，並勇於向賣方出價。

 

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