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原發表於「與媒體對抗」
http://www.socialforce.net/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=754437#754437
Taiwan's economy
Mirror, mirror on the wall
魔鏡魔鏡我問你
經濟學人，The Economist
Feb 12th 2009 | TAIPEI
說明：《經濟學人》雜誌連魔鏡都請出來問了！這已經是連續不知道有多少家外國投資機構警告台灣，那些「唱旺」台灣經濟的媒體或人物，請多聽聽建言。但修伯特相信，根據歷史經驗，台灣人民度過寒冬的能力遠比政府要強，台灣人可比田螺有著強韌的生命力。
最糟糕的經濟在哪裡？
全球經濟衰退下，哪個經濟體受創最深？
《經濟學人》每週都追蹤55個國家。若以工業生產為準，台灣受到最嚴重的衝擊。
2008年產量滑落32%；第4季更陡降62%。2月18日將公佈的國內生產毛額(GDP)將是糟糕的。
台 灣是全球最依賴出口的經濟體之一，生產大量高科技小產品到西方消費者，因此受到全球需求衰退的猛擊。1月出口驟降創歷史新紀錄的44%，出口不振也因貿易 衰退而惡化。這可部份解釋為何進口也衰退57%。因此，出口或許會隨著貿易反彈而回升。但台灣的競爭力卻遭受相對強勁的幣值侵蝕，2008年以來新台幣對 韓圜升值40%。
與同期相比，對中國出口衰退59%，為對美國出口的2倍。對佔出口1/4（按：不含香港出口）中國的大宗產品是電子零 件，受到中國大規模降低存貨的衝擊。台灣的電子工業正忍受非常糟糕的衰退。花旗銀行在台北的經濟學家鄭貞茂(Cheng Cheng-mount)指出台灣出口的支柱，例如平面顯示器與半導體，在全球金融危機之前就已經生產過剩。他估計全球最大晶圓代工廠台灣積體電路，目前 的產能利用約35%。
出口衰退的下一步是壓縮國內消費。12月的失業率升高到6年來最高的5%，真實景況或許是更加嚴酷的。台灣企業傾向於農曆年後解雇。平準後的平均薪資也滑落5%，許多企業正要求員工放無薪假，零售數據也大幅滑落11%。
甚 至在金融危機前，民間消費的成長率已排名在東亞四小龍之末。理由之一是有消費能力者不在台灣。過去8年，約有1百萬台商在中國管理工廠，多數是有錢的管理 階級。一些經濟學家預測2009年台灣的GDP將衰退3%以上，將是台灣歷史上最嚴重的衰退。最悲觀的里昂證券預測2009年會是可怕的負11%。
為 援助經濟，中央銀行自9月來連續6次調降利率到1.5%。政府也計劃刺激3%GDP的基礎建設，消費券與退稅等。提振消費者支出，政府發放每人 3,600元的消費券。然而，許多經濟學家懷疑這是否有製造那麼多的新支出。根據台灣經濟研究院的陳淼(Chen Miao)，日本類似的「定額給付金」最終僅30%投入消費（其它70%是花掉消費券，省下現金）。到目前為止，有趣的跡象描繪出更好的景況。百貨公司與 超級市場在農曆年間的銷售額，較2008年提高約10-20%。
譯註：但根據國內媒體，陳淼對台灣經濟和馬政府非常有信心，曾表示消費券的加乘效果大於1。
長期而言，改善與中國關係將有利於經濟。陳淼舉例說明，更多的台灣與中國直航應該有幫助，若台灣商人每3個月而非6個月回家，這或許能提振虛弱的消費。然而，台灣當前可怕的經濟新聞，更可能是鼓勵家庭儲蓄而不是花錢。
引述網址：http://www.hi-on.org.tw/bulletins.jsp?b_ID=87997
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Mirror, mirror on the wall
Feb 12th 2009 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition
The ugliest economy of them all?
WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.
Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.
Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.
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Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.
Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.
To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.
In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.
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〔編譯羅倩宜／綜合外電報導〕經濟學人報導指出，台灣在其所追蹤的五十五國中，因為高度出口導向，工業產值跌幅最重，出口拖累國內消費，成為全球金融危機受創嚴重的國家。
出口下滑拖垮國內消費
最 新一期經濟學人表示，台灣出口逾四分之一銷往中國，因此在這波危機中，受到中國成長衰退的拖累很嚴重，而出口又進一步拖垮國內消費。早在金融危機之前，台 灣的家戶消費就已經是四小龍之末，理由是民眾的消費能力都表現在國外，例如過去八年，有一百萬名身為消費主力的台灣企業主管，遷移至中國經營工廠。多位分 析師預測台灣今年國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）將萎縮至少三％，其中以里昂證券預估的負十一％最為悲觀。
文章指出，台灣是全球最仰賴出口的國家之一，受到全球需求急凍，尤其是西方國家消費銳減的拖累，再加上貿易融資的乾涸，今年一月出口破紀錄減少四成四，進口也下跌五成七。新台幣貶值更影響出口競爭力，自二○○八年以來，台幣兌韓元貶幅超過四十％。
消費主力西進肥了中國
過去一年，台灣對中國的外銷總額劇減，跌幅是對美國出口的兩倍，其中大部分是電子零件，因此台灣電子業正經歷前所未有的嚴峻挑戰。
出口下滑的結果，壓縮了國內消費，去年十二月台灣失業率攀升至六年新高，來到五％。由於台灣企業通常都等到農曆新年過後才開始裁員，因此未來公布的失業率將再往上增加。去年平均薪資實質下跌五％，許多企業紛要求員工放無薪假。
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