http://e-info.org.tw/node/114279
「燃煤之疾」！ 全球蚊子電廠1500座 浪費近兆美元
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本報2016年4月1日綜合外電報導，姜唯編譯；蔡麗伶審校
未來燃煤發電將再次開始成長？環團聯合發表報告指出，若氣候變遷和空氣污染等因素，讓全球新建燃煤電廠閒置，可能形成近1兆美元的浪費。
燃煤電廠排放溫室氣體。圖片來源：Stuart Rankin（CC BY-NC 2.0）。
舊電廠淘汰不及 新電廠快速啟用
《英國衛報》報導，賽拉俱樂部、綠色和平組織和燃煤研究網（CoalSwarm）指出，目前全世界興建中或規劃中的燃煤電廠有約1500座，但近年全球化石燃料發電量卻是下降的。
報告計算出的9810億美元投資額，只納入了資本支出，且並非全面包含所有規劃中的燃煤電廠，而是以各地區過去五年來的執行率計算。不過，2015年共興建了84GW的電廠（約85座），新電廠啟用的速度是舊電廠淘汰速度的五倍。
另一份英國能源氣候智庫（Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit，ECIU）的報告發現，中國、印度、印尼和越南等四大煤業成長國規劃中的燃煤電廠，可能半數以上都不會完工。
全球新建燃煤電廠 亞洲是投資大宗
目前亞洲是全球燃煤電廠投資大宗，佔87%。在中國，營運中的電廠只運轉50%的時間，燃煤使用量減少，半數省份停發新許可證、暫停興建工程，約250座電廠受影響。
ECIU指出，2010年開始，印度每五座規劃中燃煤電廠只有一座完工。此外印度也開始對煤課徵碳稅。
煤業近來受到暖化和空污問題的衝擊甚鉅。尤其是空氣污染，據估計造成每年80萬人過早死亡。2015年1月投資銀行高盛主張，化石燃料已屆退休。同時煤也面臨乾淨能源成本急劇下降的挑戰。今年3月，全世界最大的私人採礦公司美國Peabody Energy宣布瀕臨破產邊緣。
今年的氣溫仍然是史上新高，亞洲為數眾多的新燃煤電廠是否能夠啟用令人懷疑。
不過，世界煤炭協會執行長Benjamin Sporton表示，未來燃煤發電將再次開始成長：「國際能源署預測，燃煤發電從現在起至2040年將因為亞洲市場的帶動成長24%。與其把煤排除於能源組合外，不如著重於減排技術。我們的研究顯示，高效率煤可以減少兩億噸二氧化碳排放量，是具有成本效益的減碳方法。」
$1tn could be wasted on 'unneeded' new coal plants, report warns
Investment in 1,500 new coal plants around the world could be wasted if action on climate change and pollution prevent them from being used
Almost $1tn of investment in new coal-fired power stations could be wasted if growing concerns about climate change and air pollution leave the plants unused, according to a new report.
About 1,500 new coal plants are in construction or planning stages around the world but electricity generation from the fossil fuel has fallen in recent years, the detailed report from the Sierra Club, Greenpeace and CoalSwarm found. In China, existing plants are now used just 50% of the time, coal use is falling and new permits and construction have been halted in half of the nation’s provinces, affecting about 250 plants.
A second new report has found that China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam - seen as big growth areas by the coal industry - are likely to build far less than half of their planned coal plants. However, 84GW of plants (about 85 stations) were built in 2015 and new plants are being commissioned at five times the rate that old plants, such as those in the UK, are being retired.
The coal sector has been hard hit by increasing regulation to curb global warming and to cut air pollution, which is estimated to cause 800,000 premature deaths a year. Earlier in March, the world’s largest private mining company, the US’sPeabody Energy, warned it was on the verge of bankruptcy. But, with the world in the midst of a run of record hot years, concern is mounting over the viability of the large number of plants being developed in Asia.
“The era of big coal is clearly coming to an end,” said Nicole Ghio, at the Sierra Club. Investment bank Goldman Sachs declared the fuel had reached “retirement age” in January 2015. Coal is also under pressure from the plummeting costs of renewable energy.
“This research has revealed hundreds of billions being squandered on unneeded coal plants, but there’s more at stake here than money,” said Ted Nace, director of CoalSwarm. “In terms of climate safety, the clock is ticking on the transition to clean energy.”
The calculation of $981bn of investment in future coal plants did not assume all proposed coal plants would go ahead, but used the implementation rates seen in each region in the last five years. The report also only include capital spending. Asia would see by far the bulk of the investment: 87%.
The second report, from the UK’s Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), found that the Asian nations with the world’s biggest coal power project pipelines - China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam - are likely to build far less than half of their current planned coal plants. It said development would be curtailed due to both India and China already having more plants than needed, concerns over air pollution and difficulties in financing the plants. The UN climate change agreement signed in Paris in December is also expected to increase investment in low-carbon energy.
In India, the ECIU report said, four proposed coal plants have been cancelled for every one built since 2010 and a carbon tax on coal has been introduced.
The report’s author Gerard Wynn, consultant at GWG Energy, said: “The evidence suggests the shift away from the dirtiest fossil fuels in favour of cleaner forms of energy is happening much faster than anyone could have expected.”
Richard Black, ECIU director, said: “Money is moving away from coal, with the world’s largest private company Peabody hovering on the edge of bankruptcy and investors such as JPMorgan Chase and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund pulling out of coal.”
However, Benjamin Sporton, chief executive of the World Coal Association, said electricity generation from coal would grow again in the future.
“Forecasts from the International Energy Agency show electricity generation from coal will grow by 24% between now and 2040, driven mainly by growing Asian economies,” he said. “Rather than wishing coal out of the energy mix, we should be focussing on how to reduce emissions. Our research shows that high efficiency coal could cut two gigatonnes of CO2 emissions making it the most cost-effective way to reduce CO2 emissions.”
A separate study has warned that despite the sharp slowdown in coal use byChina, it is too soon to conclude that emissions from the world’s largest polluter are also falling.
“Carbon dioxide emissions depend mainly on the energy content of the coal. China is consuming better quality coal, meaning that emissions decrease less than the amount of coal burnt,” said Robbie Andrew, at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (Cicero) in Norway, one of the authors of the research published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday.
Another author, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, also at Cicero, said: ”It is enticing to jump on the latest Chinese statistics and report any good news. We find that preliminary energy statistics from China are unreliable, and the most easily available data is often insufficient for estimating emissions.”
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