【12/30新聞想想】2016全球產業趨勢
《經濟學人》報導,預計2016年會和2015年相同,全球許多產業的成長將由亞洲市場驅動。全球經濟預計將有3%成長,略優於2015年,但遠低於金融危機前的8-9%。
亞洲的醫療支出將大幅成長,特別是在中國和印度。汽車產業成長緩慢,西歐部份即使有3%也值得高興了,中東歐則可能高達9%,俄羅斯也在復甦中。
奧運和美國總統大選帶動的廣告收入將是媒體產業的好消息,全球廣告將成長5%至1.9兆美元,其中以數位廣告為成長驅力,但報紙廣告大概只會倒退0.4%,損失不大。
全球旅遊支出在2016年將增加4%,主要仍來自亞洲,亞太國家未來一年將增加50萬間飯店住房。至於已逐漸放緩的中國經濟將如何影响全球產業,目前仍不清楚。
Daily chart
How will global industry fare in 2016?
AS WAS the case in 2015, spending in Asia will underpin the growth of many industries worldwide in 2016. Global trade is likely to expand at around 3%, slightly faster than in 2015, but far below the dizzying 8-9% rates before the financial crisis.
Health-care spending will surge in Asia. Health networks will spread in India as the country works towards building an insurance-based system. China, with 12% growth, will extend its coverage deeper into the countryside, while more rich urbanites will visit private doctors.
In the automotive industry, developed markets are trundling along—but in western Europe even 3% growth in 2016 is almost exhilarating by post-recession standards. By contrast central and eastern Europe will motor along with growth of 9%. Russia, following a few years in the pits, will recover.
Large advertising revenues, due to the summer Olympics and America’s presidential election, will boost the media industry. Worldwide advertising income will grow 5% to $1.9 trn. Digital, above all, will spur growth which in news media spells further pain for traditional print publications. Yet the overall outlook isn't so bleak, newspaper ad spending—print and digital combined—is set for a dignified decline of just 0.4%, while magazines will tick up slightly by 0.5%.
Travel spending will keep growing at around 4% in 2016, again helped by Asia. Over half a million hotel rooms are planned in the Asia-Pacific countries, the most in any region. Despite such eastern promise, how much China's slowdown will dent industries is still unclear.
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